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Ethiopia’s Ongoing Dispute with Somalia: What’s at Stake Involving Egypt and Turkey

The Horn of Africa’s geopolitical landscape remains volatile as Ethiopia pursues its expansionist agenda, evidenced by a recent Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed with the Somaliland region of Somalia, which has sparked widespread condemnation. The agreement effectively granted Ethiopia access to Somali territorial waters, bypassing the Federal Government in Mogadishu and inciting concerns of regional conflict.

This provocative move is consistent with Ethiopia’s history of disregarding international rulings, demonstrated by its occupation of sovereign Eritrean territories for over two decades. The refusal to comply with the international Border Commission’s ruling on the region of Badme further underscores Ethiopia’s dismissive attitude towards legal boundaries and territorial integrity.

Somalia is amidst a complex web of regional conflicts, exacerbated by internal challenges such as terrorism and clan dynamics, drawing increased attention from neighboring countries like Egypt and Turkey, both of which have become involved in Somalia’s security and defense arrangements.

Egypt’s recent defense pact with Somalia has heightened tensions with Ethiopia, particularly in light of the ongoing dispute over the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. The failure to reach a mutually beneficial agreement on the use of the Nile River has further strained relations between the two nations, with potential far-reaching implications across the region.

In response to the escalating tensions, Turkey has sought to mediate discussions between Ethiopia and Somalia, aiming to alleviate the growing rift between the two countries. However, the recent breakdown of talks has cast doubt on Turkey’s ability to facilitate a resolution, prompting scrutiny of its motives and allegiances in the region.

As Somalia transitions away from the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) towards the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), the involvement of Egypt in the new mission has raised concerns regarding its potential impact on regional dynamics.

The delicate balance of power in the Horn of Africa hinges on the resolution of these conflicts. Ethiopia’s obstinance in the face of international norms and legal boundaries poses a significant challenge to regional stability, while Somalia navigates the complexities of its security and territorial integrity.

In these critical times, the need for constructive dialogue and adherence to international laws and regulations is paramount. As the region grapples with the implications of these geopolitical maneuvers, the commitment to peace and coexistence remains a guiding principle for Somalia and its allies.

Authored by Abdiwahab Sheikh Abdisamad, a prominent Somali scholar and political analyst, this perspective offers nuanced insight into the evolving dynamics of the Horn of Africa and the implications of external interventions on regional stability.

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