Goldman Sachs Sees Lower US Recession Risk — Impact on Bitcoin Market
Economists at the esteemed investment firm Goldman Sachs have recently revised their forecast for a potential recession in the United States, reducing the probability to 20%. This decision was based on the analysis of recent retail sales and unemployment data. In their report to clients, the Goldman Sachs economists, led by Jan Hatzius, stated that the new figure represents a decrease from their previous estimate of 25%. They also mentioned that if the US jobs report for August, scheduled to be published on September 6, shows positive results, the recession probability could be further reduced to 15%.
The report also indicated that there is a higher level of confidence among the economists that the US Federal Reserve will implement a 0.25% interest rate cut in their upcoming September meeting. However, they cautioned that if the jobs report on September 6 reveals negative surprises, the Federal Reserve might consider a larger 0.5% rate cut.
The announcement from Goldman Sachs has sparked positive movements in the US stock market, particularly in response to the strong retail sales figures from July. This has been one of the most significant increases since the early months of 2023. Additionally, data from the US Labor Department revealed a decrease in the number of people filing new unemployment benefit applications, reaching a one-month low.
But what does all of this mean for the Bitcoin market?
According to IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore, the adjustment in recession probability by Goldman Sachs is considered as a minor change that is unlikely to trigger a significant influx of investment across various asset classes, including cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Meanwhile, Markus Thielen, the head of research at 10x Research, pointed out that while Bitcoin traders might initially welcome an interest rate cut, there is also a risk that it could signify an impending recession. In such a scenario, Bitcoin could experience a downward correction, as observed in 2019.
Thielen noted that following the initial interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July 2019, Bitcoin saw a short-lived rally with a 20% surge. However, despite two additional rate cuts later that year, Bitcoin ended 2019 with a 35% drop from its peak after the first rate cut.
On the other hand, not all economists share the same sentiment as Goldman Sachs.
Bruce Kasman, the chief global economist at Goldman Sachs, mentioned that there are indicators pointing to a potential weakening in labor demand and early signs of job losses. He also highlighted the results of business surveys, which suggest a decline in momentum within the global manufacturing sector. Despite these concerns, the overall economic activity, particularly in the service sector, has shown consistent growth.
The probability of a recession by the end of 2025, as stated by JPMorgan, remains at 45%. Kasman acknowledged the presence of additional uncertainties associated with the current political landscape, influencing the overall economic outlook.
In summary, the adjustment in the recession probability by Goldman Sachs and its potential impact on the US economy has generated varying perspectives from experts and analysts. These developments will likely continue to be closely monitored by investors, particularly those involved in the cryptocurrency market.
Post Comment