The Future of Bitcoin Prices Depending on the U.S. Presidential Election
A recent report from Bernstein Research has highlighted a potential shift in the cryptocurrency market, particularly in relation to Bitcoin (BTC), depending on the outcome of the upcoming United States presidential election.
The report suggests that if Donald Trump were to emerge victorious, it could potentially lead to a bottom in Bitcoin prices, resulting in an upsurge in the price of the primary cryptocurrency. The report states, “We believe the Bitcoin price would bottom, only if the crypto market catches a bid on a likely Trump win, given [the] crypto market continuing to interpret only a Republican win as positive for crypto policy.”
Amid the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election, cryptocurrency prices have remained within a specific range, fluctuating between two specific price points. Recent predictions from Polymarket, a leading crypto prediction markets platform, paint a tight race between Republican candidate Trump and expected Democratic challenger Kamala Harris. While Trump’s shares have rebounded in recent days after negative reactions to Harris’ economic announcements, Harris has managed to regain the lead on Polymarket with a 51% chance compared to Trump’s 47%.
In addition to election insights, the report also draws attention to significant capital-raising activities among major U.S.-listed Bitcoin mining companies. Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) recently raised $300 million in convertible notes, with a portion of the funds being used to purchase Bitcoin for its balance sheet. Similarly, Riot Platforms (RIOT) announced a $750 million at-the-market equity offering, and Core Scientific (CORE) secured $400 million in convertible notes for debt retirement and AI data center acquisitions. According to Bernstein’s Gautam Chhugani, public U.S. miners hold a competitive edge in the industry, stating that “U.S. listed Bitcoin miners have a natural advantage vs. private unlisted miners…being able to raise debt/equity in the world’s deepest capital markets presents a natural advantage versus non-U.S. miners.”
The report also explores the emerging “mullet strategy” among miners, where companies are shifting towards AI data centers while still maintaining Bitcoin mining operations. This approach has been gaining traction with institutional investors, as they are more familiar with data center economics than cryptocurrency mining.
It is fascinating to consider how the outcome of the U.S. presidential election could potentially impact the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin. With the election results imminent, all eyes will be on the cryptocurrency market to see how it responds to the potential shifts brought about by the outcome.
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