The recent performance of Bitcoin has generated speculation among investors and analysts regarding the potential for a rally in the fourth quarter of 2024. Since the Bitcoin halving over 123 days ago, the price of BTC has failed to surpass its pre-halving all-time high, resulting in a 13% drop over the last month and a 14% drop over the last 30 days. Market analysts are now discussing the possibility of a parabolic rally in the coming months.

Experienced trader and analyst Peter Brandt has suggested that the current market cycle could be the longest in post-halving history. This implies that achieving a new all-time high for Bitcoin may take longer than expected, or may not occur at all. Additionally, historical price data from Coinglass shows that Bitcoin has consistently delivered positive returns in Q4 during halving years, with gains of 58% in 2016 and 168% in 2020. Moreover, BTC price has shown positive returns in eight out of the eleven years between 2013 and 2023, with an average gain of 88%.

Based on the data, there is a 73% chance that Bitcoin will experience a rally in the fourth quarter of 2024. This sentiment is further supported by the analysis of CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju, who observed that the rally for Bitcoin began in Q4 during the 2020 halving cycle. Young Ju suggests that Bitcoin is currently in an accumulation phase, indicating the potential for a parabolic uptrend in the last quarter of 2024.

Although the potential for a parabolic rally is on the horizon, Bitcoin’s price action has encountered resistance in its recovery path, particularly with regard to the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA). Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView reveals that while Bitcoin’s price has formed higher lows on the daily chart, it has remained below the 200-day EMA over the last seven days. The In/Out of the Money Around Price (IOMAP) model by IntoTheBlock also indicates that Bitcoin faces strong resistance in its path to recovery.

The 200-day EMA at $59,423 presents a significant barrier for Bitcoin’s price, with nearly 817,770 BTC previously being purchased by approximately 1.51 million addresses in the $59,500–$61,300 price range. This indicates the need for high demand-side liquidity to propel BTC’s price past the 200-day EMA and break out of the current consolidation. Failure to do so could result in a potential drop towards $57,500 or even a revisit of the $54,500 level, according to analyst Mark Cullen.

It is critical to acknowledge that the views and analysis presented in this article are not intended as investment advice. Every investment and trading decision carries a level of risk, and readers are encouraged to conduct their own research before making any decisions regarding financial investments.

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