In mid-August, Egypt and Somalia solidified their military ties by signing a cooperation protocol in Cairo, marking a significant development in their relations. This agreement follows an understanding for the deployment of Egyptian forces as part of an African peacekeeping mission set to proceed next year amidst ongoing security challenges in Somalia.

Egypt’s commitment to provide military and security support to Somalia has raised alarms regarding its potential impact on regional geopolitics, particularly as tensions between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa intensify. The conflict originated from Ethiopia’s signing of a memorandum with the self-declared republic of Somaliland, allowing it to lease part of the coastline in exchange for recognizing Somaliland’s independence. Ethiopia’s intention to establish a naval base has been perceived by Mogadishu as a violation of its sovereignty, further complicating the diplomatic landscape in the Horn of Africa.

During his recent visit to Cairo, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi finalized the military cooperation agreement, reaffirming Egypt’s support for Somali unity and sovereignty. This prompted a swift reaction from Ethiopia, with its Chief of Staff, Field Marshal Berhanu Jula, criticizing external parties who claim to advocate for Somali interests while neglecting Ethiopia’s sacrifices for stabilization efforts in Somalia.

Ethiopia’s Foreign Ministry expressed that the Egypt-Somalia agreement does not raise immediate concerns but emphasized the need for caution regarding troop deployment in the African Union mission to prevent regional misunderstandings.

According to Major General Mohamed Abdel Wahed, an expert on Egyptian national security, this move is viewed as a proactive measure by Egypt to safeguard its national interests amid escalating security challenges in the region, which include separatist movements and international rivalries affecting the strategic Suez Canal corridor. The details of the military protocol remain undisclosed, but it is expected to encompass enhanced military collaboration, anti-terrorism efforts, and training for Somali forces to combat threats like the resurgent Al-Shabab group, which poses a considerable challenge to Somali security forces.

Furthermore, Mogadishu’s recent initiative to form a new African mission signals a desire to phase out Ethiopian military presence, possibly paving the way for Egyptian and Djiboutian forces to fill this void. Yassin Ahmed from the Ethiopian Institute for Public Diplomacy contends that Egypt’s inclusion in the peacekeeping forces is part of an overarching strategy to reclaim its influence in the Horn of Africa following decades of absence and reflects a bid to compete strategically with Ethiopia. Conversely, Egyptian actions are also perceived as strategic positioning regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam disputes, where Ethiopia has historically retained the upper hand.

Recent assertions by Somali officials indicate that Ethiopian forces will not be integrated into future African Union-led operations in Somalia, prompting Ethiopia to consider unilateral actions to protect its security interests if necessary. The possibility of Egypt deploying up to 10,000 troops as part of its peacekeeping efforts has been reported, resulting in increased tensions within the region.

The backdrop of these maneuvers remains fraught with historical rivalries, especially concerning longstanding disputes surrounding the Nile dam project. Some experts view Egypt’s bolstered presence in Somalia as a significant shift in regional dynamics, potentially heightening the security stakes as Ethiopia perceives any Egyptian military activity as a direct threat to its stability.

While some local reactions in Somalia have emerged, including resistance to foreign troop presence, the situation continues to evolve. The intersection of national interests, security challenges, and geopolitical rivalries underscores the complexity of the current crisis. As the region anticipates the deployment of Egyptian forces, it is essential to understand how these developments may reshape the geopolitical landscape in East Africa and the Horn of Africa overall.

As the situation develops, it will remain critical to monitor the responses from both nations and the broader implications for regional security dynamics.

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