Following the recent Jackson Hole economic symposium, Bitcoin traders have expressed a divergent sentiment in the derivatives market, oscillating between optimism regarding potential price advancements and caution concerning the velocity of any impending rally. According to QCP Capital’s latest investor memo, there has been a notable uptick in the purchasing of call spreads, indicating a segment of traders is betting on further price escalations.

Conversely, there is a substantial amount of selling activity pertaining to Bitcoin call options with a specific strike price of $100,000, particularly for contracts with expiry dates extending to March 2025, as reported by BasedMoney. This trend implies that while a generally bullish sentiment prevails, traders do not foresee a dramatic or immediate surge in prices, as indicated by QCP Capital.

Despite recent upward movements in the values of Bitcoin and Ethereum, an analysis of volatility indicators suggests a shift towards put options, signifying apprehensions among traders regarding potential downside risks as we progress through October. Implied volatility—a crucial metric in options trading that gauges anticipated price fluctuations—has shown a bias towards puts, revealing increased concern about possible price declines rather than bullish expectations, given the current market conditions.

It is noteworthy that the bullish sentiment coincided with remarks made by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who intimated that the central bank could potentially initiate interest rate reductions as early as next month, which contributed to Bitcoin’s recent price escalation.

Nonetheless, this price increase has not been paralleled by a corresponding rise in volatility, suggesting a level of caution among traders. QCP Capital posits that with a reduction in short-term volatility, Bitcoin is likely to stabilize within the range of $62,000 to $67,000 for at least the upcoming month.

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