The potential for Bitcoin to achieve a positive monthly close above $64.3K largely hinges on its performance throughout August. Analysts at Bitfinex have indicated that recent price movements demonstrate a bullish trend, particularly as Bitcoin approaches critical levels such as $64,000 and $61,500. However, it is important to note that the market’s current situation remains characterized by low liquidity, leading to significant price volatility.

Recently, Bitcoin’s price has encountered difficulties maintaining levels above the $60,000 threshold, showing a decline exceeding 12% for the month according to data from Cointelegraph. Analysts have observed that the resistance level near $63,900 poses a significant hurdle, influenced by trading patterns of short-term holders who have made profit-taking decisions following price movements toward their realized price.

Historically, September has presented challenges for Bitcoin, with an average monthly return of -4.78% since 2013, suggesting cautiousness among investors as the summer liquidity conditions persist into this month. Despite these challenges, Kristian Haralampiev, a structured products lead at Nexo, posits that a reduction in interest rates could catalyze a substantial rally for Bitcoin, potentially setting the stage for a bull market resurgence in early to mid-2025.

Expectations for a forthcoming interest rate cut by the United States Federal Reserve are growing, with current indicators from the CME FedWatch tool reflecting a 65.5% probability for a 25 basis-point reduction and a 34.5% chance for a 50 basis-point cut at the scheduled meeting on September 18.

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