On August 30, 2024, Chinese officials cautioned an ethnic insurgent group located near Myanmar’s northeastern border to cease hostilities against the Myanmar military, warning that failure to comply would result in serious consequences. This announcement comes amidst heightened concern from China regarding the ongoing conflict in Myanmar, which is affecting its extensive economic interests, including critical oil and gas pipelines and mining operations.

A representative of the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) reported to Radio Free Asia that the Chinese security committee in Ruili issued a written directive urging the TNLA to halt its military actions immediately. The missive emphasized the importance of maintaining stability and safety along the China-Myanmar border, particularly to protect the lives of Chinese citizens. The correspondence further stated that noncompliance by the TNLA would lead to punitive measures from the Chinese authorities.

Although Radio Free Asia could not reach the Ruili security committee for comments, Lin Jian, spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, expressed significant apprehension regarding the conflict in northern Myanmar and reiterated China’s commitment to fostering an easing of tensions in the area during a press briefing.

Lway Yay Oo, the TNLA spokesperson, confirmed receipt of the correspondence from Chinese officials but refrained from commenting further, indicating that the group’s leadership was convening to deliberate on the matter.

China has been known to engage with various Myanmar rebel factions operating near its borders, often working to safeguard its business interests. Earlier this year, China attempted to mediate two ceasefires between an insurgent alliance that includes the TNLA and Myanmar’s military, although these truces ultimately faltered, leading to intensified military activities from the insurgents, including the capture of military outposts and significant territory.

It remains unclear whether the Chinese warning was also extended to other groups within this insurgent alliance, such as the Arakan Army and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army.

Additionally, China, which maintains close ties with Myanmar’s military junta that assumed control following a coup in 2021, seeks to mitigate the influence of Western nations and India’s presence in Myanmar. Analysts posit that China is hopeful that an election touted by the junta for the following year will aid in restoring stability, while concurrently urging anti-junta factions to pursue peace negotiations.

Recent reports indicate that China has restricted border trade between Ruili and the Myanmar town of Muse, allegedly to coerce the TNLA into disarming. To demonstrate its military readiness, the People’s Liberation Army of China commenced drills, including live-fire exercises in the Ruili area, aimed at fortifying border security.

Moreover, in mid-August, Chinese forces discharged warning shots toward Kachin state to deter the Myanmar junta’s air strikes targeting insurgent positions along the border.

Than Soe Naing, a political and military analyst focused on Myanmar, remarked that China’s ability to influence the conflict is limited to issuing threats and imposing border restrictions on insurgent factions and their leaders. He highlighted that these measures may not significantly impact the ongoing fights raging throughout central and northeastern Myanmar, where rebel forces continue to make territorial gains.

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