On June 6, 2024, a significant agreement was formalized in Beijing to launch the construction of a railway linking China and Uzbekistan via Kyrgyzstan. This vital infrastructure initiative aims to establish a novel land transportation corridor bridging Central Asia and East Asia.

For nearly three decades, this ambitious project remained unrealized; however, the leaders of the involved nations have expressed resolute confidence in the railway’s necessity and profitability for the entire region. Notably, such optimism was not always present, as skepticism regarding the project’s benefits pervaded the tenures of multiple Kyrgyz presidents.

Askar Akayev, who governed from 1990 until the 2005 revolution, along with his successor Kurmanbek Bakiyev, who was also ousted following a revolution in 2010, and Almazbek Atambayev, consistently questioned the project’s viability. Until 2017, particularly before Atambayev’s resignation and the subsequent transfer of power to Sooronbay Jeenbekov, Atambayev appeared to prioritize his country’s interests; however, this focus shifted toward China in later years. The reasons for Atambayev’s pivot became evident following a significant incident.

On January 26, 2018, a catastrophic failure occurred at the Bishkek Combined Heat and Power Plant (CHP), which was purportedly undergoing modernization. This incident unveiled extensive corruption and financial irregularities surrounding the CHP’s modernization contract with the Chinese company, TBEA, valued at $386 million. The financing originated from the Export and Import Bank of China (Eximbank), with repayment obligations amounting to approximately $500 million, inclusive of interest. Subsequent investigations indicated that the actual cost of the modernization should have been around $250-260 million, exposing glaring inflation of costs. Notably, a pair of pliers was billed at $640, and fire extinguishers at $1,600.

A paralleling situation arose with the Datka-Kemin power line construction that commenced in 2012, again involving TBEA and incurring a similar expenditure, with financing sourced from Eximbank. Following corruption scandals that surfaced in 2019, Atambayev lost his presidential immunity and subsequently faced imprisonment.

As of 2021, under the presidency of Sadyr Japarov, discussions regarding the Kumtor Gold Mine resurfaced. The largest open-pit gold mine in Central Asia, Kumtor had previously been under Canadian management until its nationalization. The dubious circumstances surrounding its ownership gave rise to extensive parliamentary struggles and accusations of corruption. Now state-owned under Kyrgyzaltyn OJSC, the mine has bolstered Japarov’s popularity. He publicly condemned the prior management as a “scam of the century,” emphasizing its symbolic representation of corruption benefitting both foreign entities and a select few officials. Despite this, discrepancies have emerged between the official statistics from Bishkek and those from importing countries, fueling concerns about potential malpractices in gold reporting.

In late 2023, the cost of constructing the railway through Kyrgyzstan was preliminarily estimated at $4.7 billion; however, by June 13, 2024, Prime Minister Akylbek Zhaparov revealed that construction would commence in August at a newly stated budget of $8 billion, prompting inquiries into the $3.3 billion discrepancy. During an interview with Kabar TV, President Japarov assured that the country’s rapid economic development would render additional borrowing and increased public debt—from an estimated $10 billion to $15 billion—manageable without adversely impacting the populace. He also noted this would be his final discourse on foreign debt matters.

Additionally, Akylbek Zhaparov commented on the substantial state budget increases, attributing them to the suppression of corruption, termed a “disease” in relation to the Kumtor project. These developments raise significant questions regarding the transparency and integrity of the ongoing projects, including the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, as concerns over potential fiscal mismanagement loom.

In conclusion, while the railway represents a substantial step toward regional connectivity and economic development, the intertwined legacy of corruption and financial malfeasance presents formidable challenges that the leaders of Kyrgyzstan must address to ensure the project’s success and the welfare of its citizens.

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