Outlier Ventures Declares the End of the Four-Year Bitcoin Price Cycle Post-Halving Performance
Outlier Ventures has declared the end of the traditional four-year cycle in Bitcoin price dynamics, in light of Bitcoin’s notably poor performance following its most recent halving event. Jasper De Maere, the Head of Research at Outlier Ventures, emphasized that investors and market participants should reconsider their reliance on this cycle, particularly as Bitcoin has demonstrated a decline in value approximately four months post-halving, marking its worst performance to date in the context of such historical events.
Bitcoin halving events, designed to occur at intervals of 210,000 blocks (approximately every four years), reduce the block reward assigned to miners by fifty percent. The last halving, which took place on April 20, 2023, decreased the reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. De Maere highlighted the stark contrast in Bitcoin’s price trajectories after past halving events; for instance, the cryptocurrency observed a staggering 739% increase following the 2012 halving, a remarkable 10% uptick in 2016, and a 22% rise after the 2020 halving. In contrast, the current cycle has witnessed a decline of about 8%.
He indicated that the halving’s direct impact on Bitcoin’s price seems to have diminished significantly since 2016, which De Maere identified as the last instance where such an event led to a substantial effect on Bitcoin’s market valuation. He posited that as the digital asset market evolves and becomes more diverse, the ramifications of halvings appear to diminish in significance. Although he acknowledged the psychological influences that halvings may still exert, especially concerning miners’ treasury management strategies, he pointed out that such impacts on market volume have considerably decreased.
Furthermore, De Maere argued that the robust price movements following the 2020 halving coincided with unprecedented fiscal stimulus measures linked to the COVID-19 pandemic, fundamentally altering the financial landscape and inflating the money supply, particularly within the United States.
In conclusion, while Bitcoin’s market behavior undeniably influences the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem and consequently affects funding opportunities for Web3 initiatives, De Maere urged founders to adjust their market strategies and funding approaches in light of these changed dynamics. He stressed that rejecting the four-year cycle framework does not entail a pessimistic view of the market’s overall potential. The findings presented by Outlier Ventures serve as both a caution and a strategic guide for future investment considerations within the rapidly evolving digital asset arena.
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