Arthur Hayes, co-founder of the digital currency exchange BitMEX, publicly conveyed a pessimistic perspective regarding the future of Bitcoin’s price on his X account. He identified a substantial decline as a possibility, targeting a price drop beneath $50,000 within the upcoming weekend. In his post, he shared, “BTC is heavy, I am gunning for sub $50k this weekend. I took a cheeky short. Pray for my soul, for I am a degen.”

Although Hayes did not elaborate extensively on his reasoning, his prediction coincides with the release of crucial economic data in the United States this Friday, particularly related to jobs statistics. Market analysts have increasingly focused on this data source as a significant influencer of Federal Reserve policy.

The Kobeissi Letter highlighted that prediction markets have begun pricing in four potential interest rate cuts in 2024, amounting to a total of 100 basis points. Following recent labor market data trends, they asserted that unemployment figures are becoming central to Federal Reserve decision-making. They stated, “If the jobs report aligns with expectations or surpasses them, we anticipate a 25 basis point rate cut. The market’s interest rate expectations appear to be adjusting towards a more accommodating stance.”

Recent data releases further illustrate the deterioration of the labor market. According to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs), available job openings have decreased to 7.67 million in July from 7.91 million in June—the lowest figures seen since January 2021. This decline of approximately 4.51 million job openings since March 2022, or about 38%, has been described by analysts as monumental. The Kobeissi Letter noted a particularly significant decline in construction job openings, which fell to 248,000—the lowest since October 2020. As the number of job vacancies dwindles relative to unemployed individuals, market sentiment regarding Bitcoin has become increasingly bearish, with Hayes suggesting that forthcoming negative macroeconomic data may further drive Bitcoin’s price below the $50,000 mark.

Adding to this cautious sentiment, notable trader Peter Brandt conducted a technical analysis which identified what he termed an “inverted expanding triangle” pattern on Bitcoin’s weekly chart. This analysis indicates potential support near the $46,000 mark, implying that the current market is experiencing stronger selling pressure than buying interest. Brandt explained, “The test of the lower boundary would be around $46,000. A significant upward movement is essential to recalibrate the current trend and restore optimism in the market.”

As of the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $55,767. The combination of deteriorating labor conditions and bearish technical indicators suggests that market participants will closely monitor economic developments that could influence Bitcoin’s trajectory in the coming days.

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