Bitcoin’s Price Predictions Linked to 2024 Election Outcomes: Insights from Standard Chartered

Cryptonews Economy John Brightwater September 14, 2024

Bitcoin’s Price Predictions Linked to 2024 Election Outcomes: Insights from Standard Chartered

Summary
Standard Chartered predicts that Bitcoin could reach $125,000 if Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential election and $75,000 if Kamala Harris is victorious. The report emphasizes that regulatory reforms, particularly the repeal of SAB 121, are crucial for Bitcoin’s trajectory, with market dynamics and miner profitability also playing important roles. Regardless of the election outcome, Bitcoin is expected to continue its upward momentum, offering investors significant opportunities with projections ranging from $75,000 to $125,000 by the end of 2024.

As the U.S. presidential election approaches, the political climate’s potential impact on Bitcoin is increasingly being scrutinized. Standard Chartered, a prominent financial institution, has posited that the election outcome may considerably influence Bitcoin’s pricing trajectory moving forward. In a recent report spearheaded by Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital assets, predictions suggest that Bitcoin could either experience a significant rally or a more measured ascent by the end of 2024, contingent upon whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris emerges victorious in the election. If Trump were to win, Kendrick forecasts that Bitcoin might reach an impressive $125,000. Conversely, under a Harris administration, the cryptocurrency’s value might stabilize around $75,000. Historically, political outcomes have swayed financial markets, and Bitcoin is no different; however, the current report expresses that the 2024 election’s effect on Bitcoin may be less intense than that seen during the previous Biden-Trump contest of 2020. Central to Standard Chartered’s outlook is the assertion that upcoming regulatory adjustments will play a pivotal role in shaping Bitcoin’s future, rather than the election’s outcome itself. Kendrick notes that both potential administrations are anticipated to introduce significant regulatory changes likely to favor Bitcoin. Notably, the potential repeal of SAB 121, an accounting policy mandated by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that governs banks’ digital asset holdings, is seen as a critical reform that could occur as early as 2025, fostering a more supportive atmosphere for Bitcoin’s progression. While Trump generally embodies a more pro-cryptocurrency stance, Kendrick indicates that a Harris administration would not likely impede Bitcoin’s advancement either. Nonetheless, regulatory progress could be slower under a Harris presidency, leading to a more gradual price increase. Beyond electoral implications, Standard Chartered highlights additional factors that may bolster Bitcoin’s value. Shifts within the U.S. Treasury market are forecasted to provide favorable conditions for Bitcoin, with the Treasury curve currently undergoing a “re-steepening.” This process signifies a slowing decline in break-even rates in comparison to real yields, which is favorable for Bitcoin as it indicates lower risk-neutral yields and stable term premiums. Kendrick asserts that this trend is cultivating “positive momentum” for Bitcoin’s long-term value. Moreover, the general market framework is conducive to Bitcoin’s growth, with increasing institutional and retail adoption. The expectation for regulatory clarity, particularly within the United States, has also contributed to heightened optimism regarding Bitcoin’s future prospects. Earlier this year, Standard Chartered projected that Bitcoin might ascend as high as $150,000 by the end of 2024, should Trump win the presidency, owing to advantageous political conditions and ongoing economic growth. In its July projections, the bank maintained a positive outlook, estimating Bitcoin’s value at $120,000 on the strength of enhanced miner profitability. As the price of Bitcoin climbs, miners enjoy greater financial returns, allowing them to retain more of their mined coins, which in turn influences the supply-demand equation favorably, thereby further propelling price increases. Kendrick has emphasized that miner profitability is of paramount importance in Bitcoin’s price trajectory. As miners achieve higher returns per BTC mined, they are incentivized to hold their assets longer, which can result in a decrease in circulating supply. This dynamic, coupled with rising demand, positions Bitcoin for potential price appreciation in the upcoming months. In summary, the trajectory of Bitcoin’s value is intricately linked to broader economic and regulatory dynamics. Standard Chartered’s analysis underscores the necessity of regulatory reforms, particularly the potential repeal of SAB 121, in steering Bitcoin’s long-term market outlook. Although the outcome of the 2024 election may exert some influence on Bitcoin’s pricing, the report indicates that regulatory certainty and economic factors are likely to be the primary engines of Bitcoin’s ascendance. Consequently, this period presents an essential opportunity for investors as Bitcoin edges closer to what many anticipate to be another historic price peak, with projections ranging from $75,000 to $125,000 by the close of 2024.

The article addresses the anticipated effects of the U.S. presidential election on Bitcoin’s price, as articulated by Standard Chartered, a notable global financial entity. It references the influence that political outcomes traditionally have on financial markets while also emphasizing the significance of regulatory reforms and broader economic contexts in shaping Bitcoin’s future. The insights provided by Geoff Kendrick shed light on the complex interplay of factors including miner profitability, regulatory changes, and market dynamics that could define Bitcoin’s trajectory leading up to and following the election.

In conclusion, Standard Chartered’s report on Bitcoin’s price predictions underscores the multifaceted influences that dictate the cryptocurrency’s potential upward trend. With the U.S. presidential election looming, both Trump and Harris are viewed as facilitators of regulatory changes that could foster Bitcoin’s growth, although the pace may vary. The analysis highlights the paramount importance of regulatory reforms alongside broader economic indicators, positioning Bitcoin as a key asset to watch in the near term. Investors are thus presented with a pivotal opportunity to engage with Bitcoin, particularly given the potential for significant price increases in the aftermath of the upcoming electoral decision.

Original Source: thecurrencyanalytics.com