Bitcoin’s Price Dynamics Linked to 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, Says Bernstein
Bernstein analysts predict Bitcoin prices will be highly influenced by the 2024 U.S. presidential election. If Donald Trump wins, Bitcoin could exceed $80,000-$90,000; if Kamala Harris wins, it could decline to around $40,000. Market sentiment, particularly on platforms like Polymarket, indicates a growing expectation for a Trump victory, showcasing its potential impact on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
The trajectory of Bitcoin is anticipated to be significantly influenced by the forthcoming U.S. presidential election, as highlighted by Bernstein analysts on Tuesday. They propose that should former President Donald Trump secure victory in the 2024 election, Bitcoin may experience a remarkable surge, potentially surpassing values of $80,000 to $90,000. Conversely, if Vice President Kamala Harris wins, the outlook for Bitcoin appears grim, with possibilities of the cryptocurrency experiencing a decline, potentially reaching new lows around the $40,000 mark. Gautam Chhugani, Global Head of Digital Assets at Bernstein, stated, “We expect Bitcoin to continue reacting to election odds, and turn more positive, if it starts sensing better Trump odds, and become range bound, if the race continues as ‘too close to call.'” He elucidates that Trump has demonstrated an overt appeal to crypto voters, whereas Harris has adopted a more restrained position regarding digital assets, which may diminish regulatory support for the sector in the near future. Bernstein’s insights also take into account market sentiment, noting a considerable uptick in positions favoring a Trump victory among traders on the decentralized betting platform Polymarket. The report indicates, “While not a certainty, the odds have shifted meaningfully in Trump’s favor, which suggests traders are preparing for a Trump win and its impact on markets, especially in the crypto sector.” At present, Polymarket reflects a 7% lead for Trump over Harris. Polymarket, while explicitly excluding U.S. users from its platform, might show a predisposed bias towards Trump’s candidacy due to his pronounced commitments to the crypto industry. However, Bernstein posits that the substantial liquidity, amounting to over $1.5 billion in bets, signifies genuine financial stakes rather than mere bias considerations. According to the analysts, if Trump were to regain the presidency, it could bolster Bitcoin’s trajectory significantly, potentially leading to its surpassing the previous all-time high of $74,000. The report concludes by stating, “We anticipate that Bitcoin could touch $80,000 to $90,000 if Trump secures the presidency,” while cautioning that a Harris win could invoke fears of regulatory tightening, pushing Bitcoin towards the lower $40,000 range. Moreover, the electoral outcome is expected to have repercussions beyond Bitcoin, potentially affecting other cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), which are anticipated to remain range-bound until post-election clarity is achieved, with Bitcoin likely guiding market movements.
The U.S. presidential election’s imminent approach is expected to exert considerable influence on various financial markets, particularly cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Analysts at Bernstein have identified a direct correlation between potential election outcomes and Bitcoin’s price movements, informed by the candidates’ differing stances on digital assets. Trump’s past initiatives to support cryptocurrency and blockchain technology contrast with Harris’s cautious approach, accentuating the potential volatility of Bitcoin prices in response to electoral developments. The analysis also highlights market sentiment as a critical factor, referencing speculative activities on platforms such as Polymarket, which can reflect trader perceptions about future market conditions influenced by the election results.
The upcoming U.S. presidential election is poised to affect Bitcoin’s price significantly, with Bernstein analysts forecasting potential price surges should Donald Trump prevail while cautioning against declines in the event of a Kamala Harris win. Market behavior, as evidenced by betting platform Polymarket, suggests that traders increasingly anticipate a Trump victory, indicating that sentiment may soon reflect on Bitcoin’s price movements. Overall, the election outcome is projected to influence not only Bitcoin but other cryptocurrencies, with a period of uncertainty expected until clarity is provided post-election.
Original Source: decrypt.co
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