Philippines’ Maritime Strategy Post-US Elections: Low-Intensity Engagements Expected
Following the U.S. elections, the Philippines is likely to keep a low-profile approach in the South China Sea disputes. Analysts suggest that tensions will persist, but no major escalation is anticipated. The Philippines may consider passing the Maritime Zones Act to reinforce its maritime claims and might seek discussions with other claimants while excluding Beijing in future negotiations.
Following the recent United States elections, the Philippines is not anticipated to increase tensions regarding the South China Sea dispute, according to a recent survey conducted by a Beijing think tank. Analysts predict that while maritime tensions will persist, a significant escalation of conflict is unlikely. Ding Duo, an associate research fellow at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, indicated that the Philippines will likely maintain low-intensity engagements with China during the U.S. transition period. He pointed out that the Philippine government may pursue the enactment of the Maritime Zones Act, a domestic legislative effort aimed at solidifying the country’s maritime claims, which have often been contested. This act would delineate the legal boundaries of the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea, asserting its rights amidst ongoing territorial disputes. Moreover, over the long term, it has been suggested that Manila might initiate discussions with other claimants in the South China Sea to define maritime boundaries independently of Beijing, which could potentially precipitate another round of international arbitration. This strategic approach indicates the Philippines’ intention to reinforce its position in regional maritime affairs without escalating direct confrontations with China.
The South China Sea is a region rich in resources and significant for international shipping routes, where multiple nations, including China and the Philippines, have ongoing territorial disputes. With tensions often fueled by military and political engagements, the dynamics shift notably with changes in U.S. policy and local governance. The impending implications of U.S. elections are of particular interest as they influence the Philippines’ strategies toward both China and other regional actors. In this context, the Philippines’ legislative moves, particularly the potential passage of the Maritime Zones Act, emerge as a crucial aspect of its maritime policy.
In summary, while the Philippines is expected to maintain a low-intensity stance in the South China Sea dispute following the U.S. elections, it may strategically legislate to reinforce its maritime claims. The potential enactment of the Maritime Zones Act reflects a proactive approach to solidify its rights in the region. Longer-term possibilities of engaging with other claimants while sidelining China could herald additional legal challenges in the international arena.
Original Source: www.scmp.com
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