The new defence pact between Egypt and Somalia threatens regional stability and exacerbates the ongoing confrontations with Ethiopia, which could embolden al-Shabaab’s insurgent activities. The involvement of European diplomats is critical in mitigating tensions and sustaining the AU’s peacekeeping mission, which is nearing mandate expiration and may face severe operational challenges without intervention.

The recent defence agreement between Somalia and Egypt has exacerbated tensions with Ethiopia, thereby complicating efforts to combat al-Shabaab, the jihadist organization posing a significant threat to Somalia’s stability. This coalition comprised of federal, state, and international partners has faced challenges, which now risk becoming more pronounced due to the fragile political landscape worsened by the defence pact. With al-Shabaab still controlling substantial territories, the lack of a cohesive response may facilitate the group’s expansion and disrupt regional security.

Since 2007, various African Union (AU) peacekeeping missions, supported by US and Turkish air capabilities, have sought to dismantle al-Shabaab’s operations within Somalia. Despite these efforts, the ongoing conflict has perpetuated instability within the country. Furthermore, Ethiopia’s crucial role as a primary component of the military coalition against al-Shabaab, with numerous troops deployed in Somalia, makes its ongoing conflict with Egypt particularly detrimental to the peacekeeping efforts vital for Somalia’s security.

The current situation necessitates that European diplomats utilize their influence to mediate between Somalia, Egypt, and Ethiopia in order to avert further aggravation of tensions that might empower al-Shabaab. The ramifications of the collaboration between Egypt and Somalia threaten not only to destabilize Somalia but could also lead to wider regional insecurity. Immediate and coordinated diplomatic intervention is imperative to prevent a resurgence of al-Shabaab and protect the fragile peace in the Horn of Africa.

Original Source: ecfr.eu

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