Cairo grapples with its approach toward the Sudanese Civil War, balancing its historical ties and national security interests. The escalation of conflict between the SAF and RSF presents a challenge as Egypt navigates pressures to choose sides. Humanitarian and security implications further compel Cairo to reassess its role amidst increasing external interventions.

Since the onset of the Sudanese crisis in April 2023, Egypt has grappled with its position regarding the civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Cairo has significant historical ties to Sudan, prioritizing its stability due to concerns over national security, especially regarding Nile water resources. Despite its attempts at neutrality, Egypt faces pressure to choose sides amid escalating tensions.

The complexities increase as the SAF, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, retains some semblance of cohesion, despite leaning Islamist, whereas the RSF militia, under Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti), is perceived as tribal and unreliable for establishing a democratic Sudan. An interview conducted with Lieutenant Colonel Chuck DeVore emphasized Egypt’s historical role and geographic advantage, suggesting it could play a more central role in resolving the Sudanese conflict without waiting for American intervention.

Recent developments indicate an evolving position from Egypt toward a possible alignment with the SAF. This shift may be influenced by U.S. rhetoric denouncing the RSF, including statements that have classified their actions as genocidal. This situation could precipitate an Egyptian intervention designed to stabilize Sudan, as the conflict continues to ravage the nation.

Historically, Sudan and Egypt share not only a geographical border but also a rich interwoven past, impacting both nation’s affairs. The Egyptian army has maintained cooperative military exercises with Sudan, enhancing defense ties amid concerns over the Grand Renaissance Dam negotiations. Cairo’s strategic defense posture directly correlates with its dependence on Sudan’s stability for national security.

Since the conflict erupted, the Egyptian military’s presence has been notable, raising alarms over increased instability. As war escalated beyond predictions, RSF accusations surfaced alleging Egyptian military conduct in support of the SAF. In response, Egypt has denied these allegations, reaffirming its commitment to Sudan’s unity and security.

Efforts were made by the Egyptian government to institute peaceful negotiations led by the United States and Saudi Arabia following the outbreak of combat. These initiatives included summits and discussions involving Sudan’s civil and political factions, reinforcing Egypt’s role as a mediator while firmly advocating for a Sudanese-led political resolution without foreign pressure.

The humanitarian fallout from the conflict exacerbates Egypt’s crisis, as borders are flooded with Sudanese refugees, stressing Egypt’s already limited resources. Additionally, the presence of criminal elements raises security concerns. The instability threatens to generate consequences beyond national borders, with other nations’ interventions complicating the landscape further.

International dynamics come into play with Russia reportedly supporting RSF operations, while the United States has imposed sanctions and underscored the RSF’s severe human rights abuses. The reported Iranian support for the Sudanese army only heightens Egypt’s challenges as it navigates these entangling alliances while protecting its national interests from undue influence and intervention.

Cairo’s relationship with Sudan is deeply rooted and historically significant, which influences its approach to the current civil war. The geographical proximity and shared interests, particularly concerning the Nile, underscore the importance of Sudan’s stability to Egypt. Recent developments have highlighted Egypt’s strategic calculations as it faces pressures to either support one faction or maintain neutrality amid growing regional instability and refugee crises.

In summary, Egypt’s approach to the Sudanese civil war is characterized by a complex interplay of historical ties, national security concerns, and regional dynamics. Although Cairo has attempted to maintain neutrality, the evolving situation may necessitate a more decisive stance to safeguard its interests. Engaging with other key regional players and the international community is critical for Egypt to navigate the ongoing crisis effectively.

Original Source: www.washingtoninstitute.org

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