Politics
AMERICA, ASIA, BEIJING, BILATERAL RELATIONS, CENTRE FOR GOVERNANCE AND MARKETS, CHINA, COOPERATION, DEFENSE, HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE, JENNIFER BRICK MURTAZASHVILI, NORTH AMERICA, REGIONAL STABILITY, TRUMP, UNITED NATIONS, UNITED STATES, UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH, UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH ’ S CENTRE FOR GOVERNANCE AND MARKETS, US, US AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, USAID, WASHINGTON
Clara Montgomery
U.S. Aid Freeze: An Opportunity for China in Afghanistan?
The U.S. aid freeze opens an opportunity for China in Afghanistan, potentially enabling it to enhance its influence in the region. While the U.S. has historically dominated in aid distribution, recent actions reflect a diminishing presence, which may encourage China to reconsider its engagement strategy despite its current reluctance to provide large-scale assistance.
The recent suspension of U.S. foreign aid, announced by former President Trump, could provide a significant opportunity for China to increase its influence in Afghanistan. The U.S. freeze will last for 90 days and marks a notable shift in U.S. assistance strategies, particularly through USAID, which traditionally has been a primary supporter of Afghan programs. Despite the withdrawal of U.S. forces in 2021, the United States accounted for nearly 44% of the aid that Afghanistan received last year, according to United Nations data.
USAID’s support has been vital for various sectors in Afghanistan, including health, food security, agriculture, and education, operating in conjunction with other humanitarian organizations. The withdrawal of U.S. aid underscores a broader disengagement from Afghanistan, diminishing American influence in the region. Analysts highlight that since 2021, the United States has adopted a more passive approach, focusing primarily on sanctions and counterterrorism without proactively shaping the situation on the ground.
Some experts suggest that while China possesses the financial means to fill the vacuum left by U.S. aid, it currently lacks the motivation to commit to extensive development financing in Afghanistan. Jennifer Brick Murtazashvili from the University of Pittsburgh notes, “the USAID withdrawal continues the US disengagement from Afghanistan, further weakening its influence.” This development might incentivize China to reassess its position regarding Afghanistan’s reconstruction and stabilization efforts.
In summary, the freeze on U.S. aid to Afghanistan creates a potential opening for China to increase its influence within the region. However, China’s intent to engage in substantial development assistance remains uncertain. The diminished role of the U.S. in Afghan affairs indicates a shift towards sanctions, leaving the future landscape of aid and support in Afghanistan vulnerable and ripe for new players.
Original Source: www.scmp.com
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