This article examines the evolving geopolitical landscape in Bangladesh, focusing on its increasing ties with China through loan agreements and with Pakistan through defense collaborations and trade. It highlights concerns about regional stability, domestic unrest, and rising Islamist extremism, which collectively complicate India’s diplomatic position in the region.

Bangladesh’s ties with China are deepening as it secured a commitment for lengthened loan repayment terms and a review for reduced interest rates from Beijing, according to reports from Dhaka Tribune. Dhaka has requested that China lower the interest rates from the current 2-3% to 1% and extend the repayment period for its Preferential Buyer’s Credit and Government Concessional Loans to between 20 and 30 years. As of 2023, Chinese investments in Bangladesh amount to approximately $7.07 billion, as estimated by the American Enterprise Institute.

In a notable development for regional dynamics, a Pakistani cargo ship is set to dock at Mongla Port in Bangladesh for the first time in 53 years. This comes following a government-to-government agreement for the importation of 50,000 metric tonnes of Basmati rice from Pakistan, as reported by the Economic Times. The vessel, which departed from Karachi, will deliver a portion of its cargo to Chittagong before continuing to Mongla.

The strategic partnership with Pakistan, highlighted by a recent high-level naval meeting, may raise concerns in New Delhi. Bangladesh’s prior government worked diligently to enhance its connectivity with India through access to crucial ports. With Pakistan’s renewed engagement, India faces potential challenges in the region.

Furthermore, reports indicate that Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is extending its influence within Bangladesh. Allegations have emerged that ISI operatives are attempting to sway the legal landscape and solicit the release of terrorists. Groups linked to the ISI, such as Jamaat-e-Islami, are reportedly establishing radical networks, potentially threatening both Bangladesh’s stability and India’s regional interests.

The military dynamics are also shifting, as Bangladesh’s Naval Chief met with Pakistan’s Army Chief, marking their second significant defense discussion within a month. The agenda reportedly included naval cooperation and potential participation in Pakistan-led exercises, emphasizing the strengthening ties between the two militaries.

Amid rising tensions and domestic challenges, Bangladesh’s Army Chief has signaled a possible intervention by the military should the interim government be unable to maintain order. He cautioned that ongoing political disputes could jeopardize national integrity, noting that criminal elements are exploiting the instability.

Since the recent political turmoil, attacks on Sufi shrines have escalated, with significant destruction attributed to Islamist factions, such as Hizbut Tahrir and Jamaat-e-Islami. The government’s response has been limited, raising concerns over the protection of cultural heritage in Bangladesh.

The evolving geopolitical landscape—marked by increased economic collaboration, military cooperation, and domestic unrest—suggests a complex scenario for India to navigate. The shifting dynamics may create hurdles for India as it endeavors to maintain its influence in the region.

In conclusion, Bangladesh’s evolving relationships, particularly with China and Pakistan, highlight a significant shift in regional dynamics that may pose challenges for India. The economic negotiations with China alongside increasing military cooperation with Pakistan signal a potentially precarious situation for India’s diplomatic efforts. Additionally, the internal unrest and communal tensions within Bangladesh amplify these geopolitical concerns, making regional stability increasingly tenuous.

Original Source: m.economictimes.com

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