Brazil’s Meat Export Forecast: Record Highs in Beef, Pork, and Chicken by 2025
The USDA forecasts record Brazilian beef exports of 3.88 million tonnes by 2025, driven by strong demand, a weaker real, and stable production. Brazil’s reliance on China for almost half of its beef exports raises concerns due to a recent safeguard investigation. Similar growth is expected in pork and chicken exports, making Brazil a significant player in the global meat market.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) has projected that Brazil’s beef exports will reach a record of 3.88 million tonnes carcass weight equivalent (CWE) by 2025. This increase is attributed to stable beef production at 11.9 million tonnes CWE, alongside high external demand and a weaker Brazilian real, even as domestic production is expected to decline by 2% due to inflation, making more beef available for export.
Brazil relies heavily on the Chinese market, with nearly half of its beef exports expected to be directed there in 2024. However, concerns have arisen following China’s announcement of a safeguard investigation into beef imports. This inquiry was prompted by a complaint from the China Animal Agriculture Association, which claimed that beef imports were adversely impacting domestic livestock producers, affecting all beef imports, not solely those from Brazil.
The United States serves as Brazil’s second largest beef export market, with nearly 400,000 tonnes CWE exported in 2024. Brazil has been utilizing a 65,000-tonne quota with a duty rate of 4.4 cents per kg; the remaining exports are subject to a substantial tariff of 26.4%. Brazil is wary of potential increases in US tariff policies that may further complicate its export situation.
In pork production, Brazil ranks as the fifth largest producer globally, with forecasts indicating a 1% increase to 48.45 million head by 2025. This sector is anticipated to maintain fourth place in global rankings, driven by decreases in feed costs and robust export demands. Pork production is predicted to reach 4.73 million tonnes CWE in 2025, while domestic consumption remains stable at approximately 3.1 million tonnes CWE.
Pork exports are expected to rise by 6% to 1.63 million tonnes CWE in the same year, following an 8% increase in 2024. As with beef, China remains the largest market for Brazilian pork, receiving 18.5% of all exports, followed by Hong Kong, the Philippines, Chile, and Japan.
As the second-largest producer of chicken meat in the world, Brazil’s chicken production is anticipated to reach 15.1 million tonnes in 2025, marking a 1% increase and setting a new record high. Export volumes are projected to rise by 3% to 5 million tonnes, constituting one-third of total production. Brazil’s chicken export markets are expansive, with China as the top destination, accounting for 11% of total exports, along with UAE, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa making up 45% of the exports.
The Brazilian Poultry Association has suggested that its initial estimate of 5.4 million tonnes in exports could be conservative, emphasizing the strength of the Chinese and Asian markets in contrast to potential disruptions from tariffs in the US. If US beef faces high tariffs in China, it may create opportunities for Brazil to enhance its export figures, while the EU may become a more relevant market should other circumstances arise.
In summary, Brazil is set to achieve record highs in its beef, pork, and chicken exports by 2025, primarily driven by strong external demand and stable production levels. China remains a pivotal market for all three sectors, despite recent trade concerns. The resilience of the Brazilian meat export industry reflects the complexities of global trade dynamics, particularly in the context of tariff implications and economic fluctuations in other major markets like the US and EU.
Original Source: www.farmersjournal.ie
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