Sudan’s Civil Conflict: A Deepening Humanitarian Crisis and International Dynamics

Sudan’s civil conflict has persisted for nearly two years, resulting in severe humanitarian repercussions. Approximately 30 million individuals are in urgent need of help, with 9 million displaced and millions more seeking refuge internationally. The situation deteriorated following a military coup in 2021, leading to intensified fighting and foreign intervention. Humanitarian aid is critical as the RSF and SAF battle for control over the nation.

Sudan is currently engulfed in a devastating civil conflict that has persisted for nearly two years, leading to a significant humanitarian crisis. According to the UN Secretary-General, the situation is marked by “staggering scale and brutality,” severely impacting 30 million people who require urgent assistance. Displacement figures reveal that approximately 9 million individuals have been forced to flee, with another 3 million seeking refuge in neighboring nations.

Following the removal of Omar al-Bashir in 2019, Sudan appeared poised for democratic reform with the establishment of a civilian-military “Sovereignty Council.” However, this progress was abruptly halted in October 2021 when the military seized control, appointing General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan as head of the council and Lt General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (also known as Hemedti) as his deputy.

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by Dagalo, evolved from the notorious Janjaweed militias previously implicated in gross human rights violations during the Darfur conflict. The RSF expanded significantly, amassing a force of 100,000 by early 2023, while efforts to restore democracy failed, effectively placing Sudan under continued military rule.

In 2022, diplomatic efforts led to the “Political Framework Agreement,” aiming to restore civilian governance and merge the RSF with the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF). However, mistrust lingered, and on April 15, 2023, the RSF launched a series of offensives against military installations, leading to increased territorial control in various provinces, including Khartoum.

The humanitarian ramifications of the conflict include staggering casualties, with estimates of 150,000 civilians killed and 12 million displaced by mid-2024. Coupled with reports of systematic atrocities, including possible genocide against the Masalit people, the crisis worsened as famine conditions developed, especially after the RSF captured vital food centers.

As tensions between the fighting factions escalated, international involvement became pronounced. Reports indicate that countries including the UAE, Türkiye, Russia, and China have supplied arms and support to the warring factions. The UAE has emerged as a primary supporter of Dagalo, who has benefitted financially from gold sales, while also maintaining connections with the Wagner Group.

In response, the SAF has improved its military capabilities and sought support from Iran and Russia, acquiring advanced weaponry, including drones. Despite the chaos, China has expressed interest in reviving its economic ties with Sudan, primarily in the oil sector, amidst a decrease in its investments even prior to the ongoing conflict.

The humanitarian situation remains dire with the US imposing sanctions on key military leaders and their businesses, though these measures have had limited immediate effects. Current dynamics have left the country effectively partitioned, with RSF retaining control in substantial regions, illustrating a precarious balance of power.

In early 2025, as the SAF regained control over Khartoum, General al-Burhan indicated plans for a wartime government, yet parallels to past efforts raised concerns about the abuse of power by military leadership, leaving little hope for a return to democracy. The fragmented state of Sudan has left both military factions entrenched and divided, complicating any potential reconciliation and diminishing prospects for peaceful governance.

In summary, Sudan’s civil conflict has precipitated a profound humanitarian crisis, engendering mass displacement and widespread violence. The military coup interrupted progress toward democracy, leading to increased foreign intervention and internal strife. The ongoing battle between the SAF and RSF reflects a complex geopolitical conflict, underscoring the urgent need for a resolution to restore peace and stability in Sudan. As external support fuels the violence, the possibility of returning to a democratic state seems increasingly distant, further complicating the plight of millions in need of assistance.

Original Source: frontline.thehindu.com