Bitcoin Forecast: Monte Carlo Model Predicts $713K Peak in Six Months

Cryptonews BITCOIN, CRYPTOCURRENCY, MARK QUANT, MARKET ANALYSIS, MARKET TRENDS, QUAN Dante Raeburn March 11, 2025

Bitcoin Forecast: Monte Carlo Model Predicts $713K Peak in Six Months

Bitcoin recently fell to $80,688, its lowest close since November 2024, indicating market weakness. Conversely, a Monte Carlo simulation forecasts a potential price peak of $713,000 within six months, amidst predictions of a total crypto market cap exceeding $4 trillion by 2025. A new CME futures gap has formed, with analysts suggesting significant movements before markets open again.

On March 9, Bitcoin (BTC) closed at $80,688, marking its lowest daily and weekly close since November 11, 2024. This decline was significant, as it represented a drop below the key 200-day exponential moving average (200-D EMA) for the second time in a fortnight, suggesting a further weakening in high time frame (HTF) charts. As of March 10, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index still indicated “extreme fear,” yet one market simulation presented optimistic projections for Bitcoin’s future.

Mark Quant, a crypto researcher, utilized a Monte Carlo simulation to forecast Bitcoin prices over six months, based on its current price of $82,655. This computational method employs random sampling to project various price scenarios, influenced by factors such as market volatility and trends. The simulation estimates a mean price of $258,445 by September 2025, forecasting a potential range between $51,430 at the 5th percentile and a peak of $713,000 at the 95th percentile.

The Monte Carlo model relies on the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) concept, which assumes a random asset value trajectory with a consistent parameter drift. This ensures that Bitcoin’s volatility is factored into the model, accounting for historical trends while remaining adaptable to future changes. Hence, the analysis likens itself to the unpredictability of “rolling the dice.” Furthermore, Quant also indicated a correlation between the total cryptocurrency market cap and the global liquidity index, predicting that total market capitalization could surpass $4 trillion in the second quarter of 2025.

Recently, Bitcoin experienced a 6.38% drop over the weekend, leading to the formation of a new CME Bitcoin futures gap. This gap refers to the price discrepancies observed between the closing of CME trading on Friday and its reopening on Sunday evening, currently situated between $83,000 and $86,000. Historically, Bitcoin has a pattern of “filling” these gaps in higher time frame charts, with the last seven being filled over the past four months. Technical analyst Mark Cullen commented on this gap, suggesting the possibility of a short squeeze prior to the opening of US markets on March 10. However, he cautioned that losing the weekly open around $80,000 could lead to a drop towards the low 70,000s.

It is important to note that this analysis does not provide investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading activities involve inherent risks, and it is imperative for individuals to conduct thorough research before making financial decisions.

In summary, despite recent price declines and a prevailing atmosphere of fear in the crypto market, forecasts such as the Monte Carlo simulation highlight significant potential for Bitcoin to rise dramatically by September 2025, potentially exceeding $713,000. The inherent volatility of Bitcoin continues to be an essential factor in these projections, which suggests a cautious yet optimistic outlook for the cryptocurrency market. Additionally, the formation of a CME gap could indicate forthcoming price movements, although the risks of trading should not be overlooked.

Original Source: cointelegraph.com