Bitcoin may be in a bear trap phase, with analysts predicting a future bull run. Historical patterns support this theory, with past events triggering similar cycles. Factors include macroeconomic policies from Trump and trade considerations. Some analysts forecast Bitcoin reaching $300,000 by 2026, while caution against lowered growth expectations is noted.

Bitcoin (BTC), historically subject to bear traps, may currently be undergoing another such cycle, according to some analysts. They suggest that following this phase, a significant bull run could commence. A bear trap is defined as an instance where an asset’s price sharply declines, creating the illusion of a bearish trend, leading investors to prematurely sell; however, the price subsequently rebounds, trapping those who exited their positions.

Pseudonymous crypto analyst Finish notes that Bitcoin’s bull run phases generally last about nine months, with bear traps typically occurring around the sixth month. These bear traps result in sharp price drops that incite panic and subsequent sell-offs, followed by a recovery that leads to new price highs. Historical cycles, notably those of 2011, 2013, 2017, 2021, as well as the ongoing 2024–2025 cycle, exhibit this repeated pattern.

Finish emphasizes that each bear trap in previous cycles has unique catalysts. For instance, the 2013 bear trap was influenced by events such as the closure of Silk Road and a ban on Bitcoin in China. He mentions the 2017 bear trap resulted from the launch of Bitcoin futures, heightened media hype, and transparency issues regarding Tether (USDT). In 2021, the overheated market sentiment coupled with Elon Musk’s changing stance on Bitcoin payments triggered a bear trap.

As for the current cycle spanning 2024-2025, Finish asserts that Bitcoin is presently in a bear trap, influenced by macroeconomic factors, particularly policies from former President Donald Trump. His initiatives, including interest rate cuts and other measures designed to establish the US as a crypto leader, have contributed to both optimism and short-term price fluctuations, consistent with Finish’s six-month bear trap model.

Analyst Danny supports this view, predicting that Bitcoin’s most substantial bull run will officially commence in April 2025, potentially reaching prices of $300,000 by 2026. He indicates that Bitcoin is in the Markup phase, having just passed a classic bear trap, and historically, the most significant gains follow such conditions when capital shifts to lower-cap tokens.

Conversely, some forecasters are more pessimistic regarding Bitcoin’s growth. Ecoinometrics highlights that the growth rate in the current cycle is notably lower than in previous cycles. Ki Young Ju from CryptoQuant suggests that the bull run may have already concluded based on his analysis of Bitcoin’s profit-and-loss cycle signals.

In summary, analysts suggest that Bitcoin may currently be experiencing a bear trap phase, consistent with historical precedents. Various external factors, particularly macroeconomic policies, are believed to influence this cycle. While some predictions point toward a significant increase in value post this phase, others caution against over-optimism, noting a marked decline in growth rates compared to past cycles.

Original Source: beincrypto.com

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