Study Forecasts Decline of China’s Rare Earth Dominance by 2040
A CAS study predicts China’s rare earth market share may decrease from 62% to 28% by 2035 and drop further to 23% by 2040, due to emerging competitors in Africa, South America, and Australia. China’s stronghold on heavy rare earths could also be threatened, indicating fundamental industry shifts.
A recent study published in the journal Chinese Rare Earths suggests that China’s current dominance in the rare earth market, which stands at approximately 62%, may face significant challenges over the next decade. The research indicates that this share could decline to around 28% by 2035 due to emerging competitors in Africa, South America, Australia, and Greenland.
The analysis reveals that by 2040, China’s market share might diminish further to 23%, thereby eroding its previously undisputed dominance in the rare earth sector. This shift is anticipated to occur as new mining opportunities arise, fundamentally transforming the landscape of the industry.
Additionally, even China’s stronghold on heavy rare earths, primarily located in southern China, faces potential threats from new projects such as Greenland’s Kvanefjeld and various initiatives in South America. The implications of this study emphasize the ongoing structural changes within the rare earth materials sector, highlighting the need for China to adapt to a more competitive global environment.
The study was conducted by researchers from the CAS Ganjiang Innovation Academy in Ganzhou, Jiangxi province, which is known as a major production hub for these critical metals.
The findings of the study illustrate a potential decline in China’s dominance in the rare earth market, forecasting a drop from 62% to as low as 23% by 2040. The emergence of new mining sources in other regions such as Africa, South America, and Australia, alongside competition from Greenland, indicates significant shifts in the industry. These changes call for a strategic reassessment by China to maintain its position in the global market.
Original Source: www.scmp.com
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