Betting Markets Signal Bitcoin Peak as Analysts Remain Bullish
Betting markets believe Bitcoin may have peaked at $110,000 in 2025, just above its January high. Most speculators forecast a decline to around $70,000, while bulls remain optimistic about major price increases, with predictions up to $200,000 or even $444,000 by year-end. Economic factors and regulatory changes are under scrutiny.
Betting markets indicate that Bitcoin has likely already peaked in 2025, with expectations for the cryptocurrency to reach $110,000 this year, marginally surpassing its January all-time high of around $109,000. Despite some bullish perspectives advocating for significant gains, bettors foresee limited upward movement beyond this threshold, expressing concerns about potential declines as well.
A recent Polymarket bet, with over $5 million in trading volume, suggests a 61% likelihood that Bitcoin will touch $110,000. However, the probabilities diminish for higher targets, standing at 29% for $150,000 and 14% for $200,000. Most speculators on Polymarket anticipate a decline in Bitcoin’s value, estimating it may retreat to approximately $70,000, while predictions on the Kalshi exchange are more pessimistic, projecting a low of around $64,000, reminiscent of last October’s levels.
Ethereum is also predicted to face challenges, with Polymarket bettors anticipating its price to fall to about $1,500, a decrease of 24% from the current levels. The euphoria surrounding Bitcoin’s record high in January has waned considerably due to economic uncertainties affecting risk-based assets, triggering Bitcoin’s price drop below $80,000 last week.
Amidst this, Bitcoin’s market sentiment has been impacted by rising recession fears, persistent inflation, hacks within the crypto community, and turbulent memecoin markets. However, bullish sentiments persist as Bernstein analysts express confidence that Bitcoin could still reach $200,000, asserting that the cryptocurrency market’s optimism remains intact despite skeptics.
Support for high estimates continues from various analysts, with Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick claiming a solid belief in Bitcoin’s ascent to $200,000 by year’s end, influenced by macroeconomic conditions favoring rate cuts. Additionally, 21Shares strategists share a comparable view, foreseeing lower interest rates enhancing crypto liquidity and potentially elevating Bitcoin to $150,000.
Market watchers are advised to monitor upcoming inflation data closely, as the Federal Reserve’s policy may significantly influence the momentum of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Some projections remain extraordinarily bullish, with Michael Saylor, founder of Strategy, predicting Bitcoin could reach $444,000 by year-end. Others, like Mike Cahill, emphasize that solid long-term conviction remains intact unless significant structural setbacks occur.
In summary, while betting markets suggest that Bitcoin may have peaked with limited upside potential for 2025, a number of industry analysts maintain a bullish outlook, projecting substantial gains in the near future. Despite current volatility and economic concerns, there is optimism regarding favorable regulatory conditions and macroeconomic influences that could stimulate demand for Bitcoin. Investors should remain vigilant regarding inflation data and its implications on cryptocurrency momentum.
Original Source: www.businessinsider.com
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