Hizbullah has seen a decline in political power within Lebanon as it faces challenges from a new president and government. The organization struggles with financial restrictions and supply chain disruptions from Syria, leading to increased unrest and protests. With tensions rising, there is a potential for renewed conflict with Israel, which could reshape Hizbullah’s standing in Lebanese politics and society.

Hizbullah has experienced a decline in its political influence in Lebanon since the beginning of 2025, marked by defeats against Israel. The organization has reluctantly allowed the Shia Amal movement to represent it in discussions about UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which calls for Hizbullah’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon and disarmament, notwithstanding Hizbullah’s claims that it pertains only to the southern region.

The election of General Joseph Aoun as president, backed by American interests, was a considerable blow to Hizbullah, especially after its candidate, Souleiman Frangieh, withdrew. Furthermore, Judge Nawaf Slam’s appointment as prime minister, who formed a government without Hizbullah’s involvement, has undermined the group’s control over Lebanese politics for the first time since 2008.

The situation has deteriorated further due to Bashar Assad’s regime being replaced by a Sunni government, which disrupted Hizbullah’s supply routes for weapons through Syria. This severance halted weapon transfers and eliminated Syria’s role as a base for Iranian support, isolating Hizbullah significantly.

Hizbullah’s financial woes have also deepened, with Israel targeting its bank, al-Qard el Hassan, resulting in severe cash shortages. Although the group managed to compensate affected families with nearly $400 million, operations were impacted, and connections with Iranian flights were rerouted, limiting access to financial resources.

Initially, Hizbullah focused on reorganizing its military and smuggling weapons across the Syrian border. This strategy led to confrontations with the new Syrian government, attempting to seal border crossings. However, as tensions escalated, Hizbullah redirected efforts toward protests within Lebanon, promoting unrest in various neighborhoods, although it distanced itself from the organization of these actions.

Tensions rose significantly when Lebanon restricted air access for Iranian planes suspected of delivering funds to Hizbullah, leading to threats from Israel against Beirut International Airport. This provoked protests that confronted Lebanese authorities, culminating in violent clashes with the military.

In an attempt to reshape its public image, Hizbullah announced a large funeral for its recent losses, including its secretary general, which is expected to draw thousands of supporters and display strength, signaling its undeterred presence in society.

Lebanon stands at a pivotal crossroad, with the specter of civil war looming and raising questions about Hizbullah’s future role amidst ongoing threats. The situation depends heavily on Israel’s upcoming decisions regarding its military presence in southern Lebanon and the ability of the Lebanese army to manage these pressures.

Hizbullah may resort to conflict if it sees an opportunity to boost support following an Israeli military withdrawal, risking further instability within Lebanon. The potential clash could either reinvigorate Hizbullah’s domestic power or plunge the nation into a renewed cycle of violence.

In summary, Hizbullah is facing significant challenges to its authority and political power in Lebanon, experiencing a notable decline since 2025. The growing tension with Israel and internal unrest may ignite a potential civil conflict, forcing Hizbullah to adapt its strategies. The situation remains precarious, with the potential for either renewed military confrontation or deepening civil strife, depending on the unfolding political dynamics.

Original Source: jcpa.org

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