Rising Violence in South Sudan: Understanding the Current Crisis and Preventing Civil War
Rising political tensions and violence in South Sudan are raising fears of civil war. Uganda’s military intervention and government crackdowns against opposition figures threaten a fragile peace established by a 2018 power-sharing agreement. Historical grievances between the Nuer and Dinka communities are resurfacing, with significant recent conflict triggered by the White Army militia. Without effective dialogue and international support, the potential for renewed violence remains high.
The rising political tensions and escalating violence in South Sudan, particularly in Upper Nile State, threaten a return to civil war. In March 2025, Uganda deployed troops at the request of South Sudan’s government, resulting in aerial bombardments that have been met with strong opposition. This situation challenges the viability of the 2018 power-sharing agreement between President Salva Kiir and First Vice-President Riek Machar, which halted a previous five-year civil conflict. Jan Pospisil, an expert in South Sudan’s political landscape, highlights the sources of growing unrest and violence.
In early March 2025, the White Army, a militia representing the Nuer community, initiated attacks against the South Sudan People’s Defence Forces in Nasir County, leading to significant casualties. Nearly 50 individuals were killed, while many others sustained injuries. The White Army asserts that its actions were defensive, reflecting the ongoing ethnic strife, especially between the Nuer and Dinka groups. Recent government measures, including aerial assaults and the detention of opposition leaders, have escalated these tensions significantly.
Historically, the animosities between the Nuer and Dinka communities date back to the 1991 split within the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM). This division led to a decade of conflict, wherein the White Army emerged primarily for community defense. Although Riek Machar established a faction for the Nuer, he has struggled to maintain unified control over the various militias, including the independent White Army, which is crucial to understanding the current volatility.
In contrast to the dire conflicts of 2013, which saw Nasir become a battleground due to government attacks on Nuer forces, the current White Army’s actions result from specific provocations rather than coordinated strategies. Events escalated following the death of soldiers during an ambush by the White Army, leading to violent reprisals by the national army. This humiliation for the government sparked even further conflict, with the White Army capturing strategic locations in early March.
Following these developments, the SPLM-led government has sought to blame opposition groups for the violence, arresting several key political figures in what appears to be an opportunistic strategy rather than an attempt to resolve the ongoing conflict. This narrative fails to acknowledge the White Army’s independent operations, emphasizing the need for a more nuanced understanding of the situation.
The situation in South Sudan is precarious, with rising violence and political instability threatening a relapse into civil war. The involvement of foreign military forces and the government’s reactionary measures against opposition leaders further complicate the landscape. A sustainable path to peace necessitates targeted dialogue, community engagement, and international advocacy for de-escalation. Critical support from international bodies is essential to address underlying grievances and prevent escalation of conflict.
Original Source: theconversation.com
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