Critical Developments in Sudan’s Civil War and Future Implications
Sudan’s civil war has intensified, leading to significant military advances by the regular army against the RSF. The conflict, ignited in 2023, has resulted in massive casualties and displacement, raising the possibility of a divided Sudan with conflicting military and paramilitary administrations. Recent developments include the RSF’s establishment of a parallel government and ongoing accusations of atrocities from both sides.
The civil war in Sudan has reached a critical juncture after nearly two years of conflict, resulting in tens of thousands of deaths and the displacement of millions. The military has recently gained ground against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and claims to have regained control of Khartoum, including the Republican Palace, although the RSF has not acknowledged this development. While the war is not expected to end shortly, significant implications for both military and RSF forces arise from recent advances.
The conflict, which began in April 2023, stems from a power struggle between the military and the RSF, previously allies tasked with overseeing Sudan’s democratic transition following a 2019 uprising. Instead of facilitating civilian governance, the two forces collaborated to suppress the return to democratic rule, resulting in a rapid escalation of violence. It is estimated that over 28,000 people have died as a result of the conflict, with more than 14 million displaced and increasing instances of famine across the nation.
Although the military’s successes in Khartoum mark a new chapter, a division between military-controlled and RSF-controlled regions is likely forming. Military leader Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan shows little interest in serious peace negotiations, while Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo of the RSF appears committed to continuing hostilities. The RSF maintains control over significant territories in western Sudan, especially in the Darfur region.
The RSF’s recent establishment of a parallel government through a charter signed in Kenya underscores the intensifying rivalry. This charter, promoting a secular, democratic, and decentralized state, aims to recognize the demands of various Sudanese communities for autonomy. In contrast, Burhan’s inclination to set up a transitional government could lead to competing administrations, further solidifying Sudan’s fragmentation.
The RSF, stemming from the infamous Janjaweed militias initially mobilized against Darfur populations by former president Omar al-Bashir, has been involved in numerous atrocities throughout the war. The Biden administration imposed sanctions against Dagalo, accusing the RSF of genocidal acts—an allegation the RSF vehemently rejects. The military, too, faces criticism for human rights abuses, standing firm on its denial of misconduct.
The current situation in Sudan indicates that the civil war is transitioning into a prolonged phase characterized by territorial divisions between military and paramilitary forces. While military advances seem to solidify control in Khartoum, the RSF’s resilience and establishment of a parallel government point to an enduring conflict and potential for further fragmentation. International concern about atrocities perpetrated by both sides underscores the dire humanitarian conditions facing millions of displaced individuals, emphasizing the need for urgent diplomatic initiatives to foster peace and stability in Sudan.
Original Source: apnews.com
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