Low Expectations Ahead of Saudi Talks Between Russia and Ukraine
Russian and Ukrainian diplomats are set to hold negotiations in Saudi Arabia with U.S. involvement, but expectations for significant advancements are low. U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff is optimistic, but analysts from both sides predict only technical discussions on cease-fires. Recent escalations in conflict raise further concerns as hopes for peace continue to be challenged.
In anticipation of negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian representatives, alongside a U.S. delegation in Saudi Arabia, expectations for a substantial breakthrough remain low. Although U.S. officials express optimism, particularly U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, who stated, “I think that you’re going to see… some real progress,” the perspectives from Kyiv and Moscow are much more cautious. Ukrainian political analyst Serhiy Taran emphasized that the most realistic outcome would likely be a temporary pause in hostilities, rather than a path to lasting peace, noting that the process could extend over a month or two.
Taran suggested that any successful negotiations might yield merely technical details regarding the cease-fire, which would then need to be discussed in Kyiv, Moscow, and Washington. In Russia, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov tempered expectations by highlighting the need for detailed and thorough work ahead, reminding that “we’re only in the beginning of this road.”
The diplomatic approach will not involve direct meetings between Russian and Ukrainian diplomats, as they will instead participate in separate discussions with the U.S. team in a method referred to as “shuttle diplomacy.” This arrangement, marked by the U.S.-Ukrainian discussions initiated on March 23, allows all parties to be in the same location, potentially accelerating progress. However, the scenario resembles past Gaza cease-fire negotiations that spanned months, leaving some skeptical of immediate resolutions.
The ongoing discussions may clarify previous ambiguities, where earlier rounds resulted in each side presenting differing interpretations of agreements. Despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s enthusiastic stance on the negotiations, hopes for swift advancement have been continually challenged, particularly when proposed cease-fires faced difficulties in execution.
One notable instance involved a suggested 30-day general cease-fire that was ultimately hindered by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s narrower focus on infrastructure, leading to further confusion regarding targeted agreements. Additionally, discussions concerning Ukrainian nuclear assets and a nearly finalized deal regarding the country’s rare earth minerals continue to lack clarity on finalization.
As the Saudi negotiations approach, Witkoff also mentioned potential agreements on a cease-fire in the Black Sea, which could lead to a comprehensive cease-fire. He expressed belief in Putin’s desire for peace, a sentiment not shared by Ukraine and European nations. Amid this stalled diplomatic progress, Russian military actions have escalated, resulting in tragic civilian casualties in Ukraine, reinforcing calls from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for enhanced international pressure to cease hostilities.
In summary, the upcoming negotiations in Saudi Arabia between Russian and Ukrainian representatives, alongside U.S. officials, are marked by widespread skepticism regarding any significant breakthroughs. While U.S. officials convey optimism, both Ukrainian and Russian perspectives highlight a cautious anticipation of only technical discussions regarding a cease-fire. The complexity of previous negotiations and ongoing military actions further complicate optimism for progress, with serious concerns remaining about civilian safety amid the ongoing conflict.
Original Source: www.rferl.org
Post Comment