The Sudanese civil war has seen recent military gains by the SAF against the RSF, yet the humanitarian toll remains severe, with massive displacement and death toll estimates varying widely. Despite military advances, the RSF retains control over significant regions, raising doubts about a swift resolution. Possible partitioning and international influences further complicate the conflict’s trajectory as it enters its third year.

The ongoing civil war in Sudan appears to be reaching a pivotal moment due to recent military advances by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). Despite any potential conclusion to the conflict, the consequences for the Sudanese population have been dire, resulting in tens of thousands of fatalities and the displacement of millions. The continued presence of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary group holding significant territories, complicates the military’s achievements, indicating that the conflict may persist.

The fighting commenced on April 15, 2023, between the SAF, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the RSF, led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as “Hemedti.” The RSF originated from the notorious Janjaweed militia in Darfur. Initially allies in overthrowing President Omar al-Bashir in 2019, the two factions later fell into a power struggle centered on differing timelines for military integration, igniting widespread violence.

The humanitarian impact of this civil war has been catastrophic, with death toll estimates ranging from 20,000 to 150,000, reflecting ongoing challenges in accounting for the casualties. Additionally, over 14 million individuals have been displaced, marking one of the world’s most severe displacement crises, with a significant proportion of the population facing acute food insecurity.

Recent developments indicate the SAF has achieved considerable territorial gains, controlling strategic regions such as much of the southeastern border with Ethiopia and Port Sudan. The military’s recent successes include recapturing key strongholds while portraying an image of strength to both the local populace and international observers. Despite these advances, the RSF continues to maintain control over substantial territories, particularly in Darfur, presenting ongoing challenges to a conclusive resolution.

The possibility of Sudan partitioning into separate nations, although currently perceived as unlikely, is gaining traction amid rising tensions. The RSF’s plans announced in February for forming a rival government underscore the fracturing political landscape. The African Union remains divided on recognizing entities linked to the RSF, complicating international efforts to stabilize Sudan.

Additionally, external geopolitical factors significantly influence the conflict. U.S. actions, such as halting aid, have strained humanitarian support, impacting millions. Conversely, Russia’s military support has bolstered the SAF, while China’s focus on securing oil production amidst the conflict further complicates the dynamics. The war’s trajectory remains uncertain as it approaches its third year, highlighting the intricate interplay of local strife and international interests.

In summary, the civil war in Sudan reflects a complex interplay of military advancements, humanitarian crises, and geopolitical influences. The SAF’s recent victories yield hope for some, yet the resilient presence of the RSF showcases that the conflict is far from over. Potential partition raises critical questions about the future governance of Sudan, while broader international interests complicate the pursuit of a peaceful resolution. Thus, the conflict continues to impact the lives of millions, suggesting that the need for a comprehensive solution is imperative.

Original Source: theconversation.com

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