Experts informed the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee that China would likely refrain from attacking Taiwan if it anticipated significant trade consequences. They emphasized that allies’ contributions to defense go beyond military expenditure. Current US policies stress the importance of allies meeting GDP spending targets for defense, aiming to bolster deterrence against China.

During a recent session of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, experts indicated that Beijing is unlikely to attack Taiwan if it forecasts significant trade disruptions. These insights suggest that the response of US allies and partners to China’s aggression may deter potential hostilities, given their economies’ interdependence.

Oriana Skylar Mastro from Stanford University highlighted that China, relying heavily on exports, would reconsider any military action against Taiwan if such an act jeopardized vital trade relationships. She stated, “if they believed trade with US allies and partners would stop if they attacked Taiwan, they would never do it.”

Beijing maintains that Taiwan is a breakaway province and insists on its eventual integration with the mainland, potentially through force. Although most nations, including the US, do not officially recognize Taiwan as an independent entity, the US government strictly opposes any military incursions aimed at the island.

Mastro, alongside other experts, stressed that US allies can offer strategic contributions beyond mere financial support. Randall Shriver of the Project 2049 Institute criticized the oversimplification of burden-sharing, which often centers solely around defense spending percentages relative to GDP.

Since January, US President Donald Trump and his administration have focused on increasing the defense expenditure of allies, at times threatening to withdraw military support if these allies do not meet specific GDP spending targets. These strategies reflect a broader and more nuanced understanding of military alliances and shared commitments against potential threats.

The insights from the Senate Foreign Relations Committee’s hearing emphasize the importance of trade relations in deterring potential Chinese aggression towards Taiwan. Experts argue that the strategic contributions from US allies extend beyond mere financial calculations, highlighting the need for a comprehensive approach to national defense. The current US administration’s focus on defense spending by allies is part of this broader strategy, although it may oversimplify complex international relationships.

Original Source: www.scmp.com

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