Top Strategist Analyzes Bitcoin’s Potential to Surpass Gold
Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s macro director, discusses the potential for Bitcoin to surpass gold, projecting this could happen by 2035 based on different growth models and current market conditions. Timmer estimates Bitcoin’s price could reach $2.25 million per coin if it matches gold’s projected market cap.
Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro, recently shared insights on the ongoing debate regarding Bitcoin’s potential to surpass gold as a store of value. Both assets are recognized for their scarcity and resilience, with Bitcoin showcasing remarkable growth in the past decade. Although currently, the valuation between gold and Bitcoin remains significantly apart, analysts suggest that Bitcoin’s growth trajectory may allow it to eventually catch up to gold.
In a post on March 28, Timmer articulated his views on Bitcoin’s potential to dominate gold’s position in the market. While optimistic, he cautioned that such a transition would not occur immediately. Timmer noted that gold has historically appreciated at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% since 1970, already seeing a 17% increase this year. His analysis proposes varying timelines for Bitcoin to equal gold’s market valuation based on different growth models.
According to Timmer’s projections, using the power law model, Bitcoin could reach parity with gold’s valuation by 2035. Conversely, if Bitcoin’s price trajectory follows the internet S-curve model, it may take approximately 20 years to achieve similar market standing. Regardless of the model, Timmer humorously remarked that gold could remain “Bitcoin’s quieter older sibling” if it maintains a growth rate exceeding the average CAGR of 8%.
Projected markets indicate that if gold appreciates at 8% per year from its current value of $3,085, it could reach $6,660 per ounce by 2035. Assuming a stable inventory of 6.7 billion ounces, gold’s market cap would increase from $20.67 trillion to approximately $44.62 trillion. In this scenario, Bitcoin could also attain a $44.62 trillion market cap, suggesting a price of $2.25 million per Bitcoin by 2035, given an unchanged supply of 19.84 million coins.
In summary, Jurrien Timmer’s analysis suggests that Bitcoin has a viable pathway to surpass gold as a leading asset by 2035. His projections, based on distinct growth models, indicate that while challenging, this possibility is anchored in Bitcoin’s accelerated adoption and market dynamics. Investors should consider these insights while remaining cautious, as market conditions may shift over time.
Original Source: thecryptobasic.com
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