Arthur Hayes Envisions Bitcoin Surging to $250K in 2025 with QE Shift
Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of 2025, contingent on the Federal Reserve’s shift to quantitative easing. Hayes emphasizes that Bitcoin’s valuation is driven by the expectations surrounding the fiat supply. However, many traders expect a more conservative price target, reflecting broader market uncertainties.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer of Maelstrom, suggests Bitcoin could potentially exceed $250,000 by the end of 2025. He asserts that this surge primarily depends on the Federal Reserve’s transition to quantitative easing (QE), which would inflate the supply of fiat currency. Specifically, Hayes noted, “Bitcoin trades solely based on the market expectation for the future supply of fiat.”
In an April 1 Substack post, Hayes argued that if the Fed shifts to QE for treasuries, Bitcoin, which recently hit a local low of $76,500, is positioned for a significant rally towards $250,000. The Fed has indicated a reduction in the Treasury runoff cap from $25 billion to $5 billion per month while maintaining a steady cap on mortgage-backed securities (MBS) runoff.
According to Jerome Powell, any excess principal payments might be reinvested into Treasurys, which Hayes interprets as a form of treasury QE. He stated, “Mathematically, that keeps the Fed balance sheet constant; however, that is treasury QE. Bitcoin will scream higher once this is formally announced.” In contrast, another analyst, Jamie Coutts from Real Vision, estimates that Bitcoin’s price could reach $132,000 by the end of 2025, adjusting for the global liquidity index.
Despite his predictions, market sentiments reveal cautious expectations, with only 9% of traders betting on a $250,000 Bitcoin price, while the majority foresee it reaching around $110,000 in 2025. Moreover, ongoing global economic uncertainties, including tariff implications, are likely to affect Bitcoin’s near-term momentum, as noted by Stella Zlatareva from Nexo.
In conclusion, Arthur Hayes posits that Bitcoin could soar to $250,000 by the end of 2025 if the Federal Reserve pivots to quantitative easing. The current economic climate, marked by adjustments in Treasury runoff caps and monetary policies, is open to influencing Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Yet, market sentiment remains cautious, with many anticipating a more modest price peak, highlighting the unpredictability of cryptocurrencies amidst global economic changes.
Original Source: cointelegraph.com
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