Politics AFGHANISTAN, ASIA, BRI, CENTRAL ASIA, CHINA, CNN - NEWS18, CP, ECONOMIC CORRIDOR, FIVE NATION, FIVE NATION RAILWAY CORRIDOR, GEOPOLITICS, GWADAR PORT, HAM, HAMBANTOTA, HAMBANTOTA PORT, INITIATIVE, INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION, IRAN, KABUL, KABUL MOTORWAY, KHORASAN, MES AYNAK, MEXICO, ML - 1, NORTH AMERICA, PAKISTAN, PESHAWAR, SARTP, SECURITY CONCERNS, SINO - AFGHAN SPECIAL RAILWAY TRANSPORTATION, SOUTH ASIA, SRI LANKA, TALIBAN, TRADE, WAKHAN, WAKHAN CORRIDOR, WAY Nia Simpson May 23, 2025 0 Comments

Afghanistan Facing Potential Debt Crisis Amid Chinese Interest in Minerals

Afghanistan is nearing a crisis reminiscent of Sri Lanka’s debt troubles, largely driven by China’s interest in its $3 trillion mineral resources. Intelligence warns the Taliban could face challenges similar to those in Sri Lanka and Pakistan, as China focuses on industrial investments rather than local development. Key projects could be jeopardized by internal conflicts and external threats, raising concerns over the long-term implications of this reliance on China for economic support.

Afghanistan appears to be on the verge of entering a debt crisis reminiscent of Sri Lanka’s infamous Hambantota Port debacle. Key intelligence contacts suggest that the country’s lucrative $3 trillion mineral wealth is drawing China’s interest, and the Taliban administration may soon face challenges similar to those that have embroiled Sri Lanka and Pakistan. Reports indicate that China is prioritizing its industrial ambitions within Afghanistan rather than focusing on the nation’s development.

Intelligence sources have disclosed that Afghanistan is becoming deeply integrated into China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which aims to bolster the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) while developing transit routes across the region. This network seeks to link Afghanistan with China, Pakistan, Iran, as well as Central and South Asia. Through this plan, China intends to enhance its geopolitical influence, gain access to resources, and establish dominance in the region by constructing critical infrastructures such as railways and ports.

Particular projects such as the ML-1 railway, Gwadar Port enhancements, and the Sino-Afghan Special Railway Transportation (SARTP) represent key facets of this strategy. However, the construction efforts are reportedly jeopardized by security threats from groups like ISIS-Khorasan and Baloch insurgents, as well as internal conflicts within the Taliban. Any incidents targeting these investments might jeopardize future funding, which is imperative for sustaining these projects.

Moreover, there are growing concerns surrounding the Taliban’s capacity to ensure the safety of Chinese workers and their projects, as exemplified by the stalled Mes Aynak copper mine venture. While the Taliban currently maintains a neutral posture towards China, potential obligations to Beijing could force the group to compromise its diplomatic flexibility, leading to increased challenges.

Internal strife within the Taliban between factions such as the Kandhari and Haqqani networks raises significant governance questions. The intelligence assessments reveal that China’s short-term economic strategies exploit Afghanistan’s weaknesses and leave it susceptible to external pressures and risks.

China’s maneuvers revolve around exploiting Afghanistan’s untapped mineral resources, notably lithium, rare earth metals, and copper, key elements for Chinese innovation and green energy industries. The planned SARTP project will aid in the efficient transport of these valuable resources to Xinjiang. Furthermore, lucrative oil deals in the Amu Darya Basin valued at $541 million and potential mining agreements are set to solidify long-term energy supplies and resources for Beijing.

By better connecting Afghanistan to Gwadar Port through the CPEC routes, China aims to circumvent India’s strategic Chabahar Port. The goal is to reroute Central Asian and Afghan commerce through Chinese-dominated pathways, thereby increasing the economic viability of Gwadar and raising revenues for the Chinese government. The Five Nations Railway Corridor would integrate Afghanistan into a broader Eurasian trading framework, unlocking access to Central Asian, Middle Eastern, and European markets for Chinese products.

This deepening of economic ties between Afghanistan and China appears to position the latter as the Taliban’s predominant economic partner, supplanting previous U.S. involvement. The Taliban may soon find themselves reliant on Chinese funding to drive reconstruction efforts while Beijing will likely demand security cooperation in return, including actions to contain Uyghur militancy in Xinjiang. Sources report that the Taliban have indicated a willingness to address groups such as ETIM, aligning with China’s broader objectives. Intelligence assessments suggest that this economic integration through SARTP and the Wakhan Corridor could foster stability in Xinjiang while promoting local economic growth and reducing separatist pressures.

In conclusion, Afghanistan stands at a critical juncture where its economic independence is increasingly threatened by Chinese investments and interests. The potential pitfalls of a debt crisis loom large, echoing the challenges faced by Sri Lanka and Pakistan. With China’s ambitions focused on Afghanistan’s vast mineral wealth, the Taliban’s governance fragility is further compounded by their reliance on Beijing for developmental support. As regional dynamics evolve, Afghanistan’s path forward will require balancing foreign interests with domestic stability and independence.

Original Source: www.news18.com