Trump’s Cowardice May Pave the Way for Taiwan Conflict with China

Increasing tensions between China and Taiwan could lead to war, exacerbated by Donald Trump’s policies. Xi Jinping is preparing for possible military actions against Taiwan, framing it as a legacy project. As Trump’s aggressive stance weakens U.S. resolve, Taiwan’s vulnerability and the escalating standoffs pose serious risks for war in Asia.

There is a growing concern that the current global chaos could lead to yet another upheaval – this time in Asia. The notion that bad news comes in threes might just find some footing considering recent conflicts in Europe and the Middle East. Nations like India and Pakistan are demonstrating how precarious the situation is, firing insults and missiles at one another. Plus, North Korea’s unpredictable regime, backed by its alliance with Russia, creates an unsettling atmosphere as relations sour with neighboring countries.

However, the most pressing threat may be the intensifying tensions between China and U.S.-supported Taiwan. Reports indicate that President Xi Jinping has instructed his military officials to prepare for a potential invasion of Taiwan by 2027, branding the island as part of China’s sovereign territory. U.S. officials recently noted that China possesses the capability for an invasion now, boasting a fleet of amphibious landing craft and a ready air and missile force at its disposal.

The situation remains tense, as recent military exercises by China’s offshore forces hint at serious intentions. Moreover, Beijing has ramped up its propaganda campaigns, labeling Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te as a pro-independence “destroyer of peace.” Likewise, President Lai is retaliating, denouncing China as a hostile entity and implementing strategies to tackle potential espionage and threats. Taiwanese media, through dramas like “Zero Day,” reflect the painful consequences of a potential invasion scenario.

Historically, fears of conflict have been prevalent but have, for the most part, not manifested into open warfare. Since 1979, the U.S. has maintained a delicate peace by recognizing Beijing while committing to Taiwan’s defense. Yet, as time progresses, the risks grow, especially with China’s bolstered strength in recent years. For Xi, who will soon turn 72, the unification of Taiwan presents a legacy-building opportunity that could become increasingly appealing.

Xi’s considerations are compounded by Donald Trump’s contradictory policy stance on China. The U.S. president, under pressure from his anti-China sentiments, could impose increased tariffs that threaten millions of American jobs. His aggressive measures against China – including technology restrictions and limiting student visas – certainly contribute to the mounting tension. Such actions appear to undermine the Chinese Communist Party’s grip on power, feeding into an already volatile atmosphere.

If provoked excessively, with nationalistic factions in China egging him on, Xi could confront Trump with a stark choice: trade war or military confrontation? Alternatively, he might suggest abandoning Taiwan altogether in favor of negotiations. Should China choose more aggressive steps, like blocking Taiwanese maritime routes or cyber-attacks reminiscent of warfare tactics, it could leave the U.S. in a precarious position where a retreat might be unavoidable.

Under Trump, the long-held U.S. position of “strategic ambiguity” seems to wane, reflecting a lack of assertiveness. The reality is that he does not desire conflict in East Asia. Yet, the perception is rife that his boldness in policies masks an underlying cowardice. He appears hesitant to engage seriously in global conflicts, even as he prioritizes self-interest over principles.

When asked if Trump would defend Taiwan, skepticism looms large. He has recently conveyed sentiments that Taiwan is not paying its fair share for U.S. military security, and his actions, including tariffs on Taiwanese products, have not inspired confidence amongst allies. Opinions are split within Washington over how to approach Taiwan militarily, something that does not bode well as tensions rise.

Contemporary commentators demonstrate a varied perspective, arguing against military engagement over Taiwan to avoid conflict. Such views, however, could play directly into Xi’s hands, fueling skepticism about America’s reliability. As Taiwan grapples with internal divisions fanned by Beijing, its defense posture remains wanting amid a growing need for modernization. Equipment shortages and limitations on U.S. arms deliveries contribute to the unease.

Conventional wisdom suggests that China values stability above all else, but what if that axiom needs reevaluation? Xi likely perceives the contest over Taiwan as a critical aspect of the broader geopolitical struggle with the U.S. The opportunities brought about by Trump’s erratic tariffs and foreign policy blunders may prompt China to believe that now is the time to act decisively.

As history recalls, three significant events often shape narratives; Hong Kong and Macau’s reintegration into China were two powerful instances. Xi could very well be eyeing Taiwan as the completing piece of this puzzle, seeing a potentially weakened U.S. as ripe for the picking. The stakes are undeniably high for both sides in what unfolds next.

In summary, the potential for a conflict between China and Taiwan grows as tensions escalate amidst Trump’s erratic policies and rising anti-China sentiment. President Xi Jinping is preparing for possible military action, viewing Taiwan as part of China’s territory, while the U.S. finds itself in a difficult position. The effectiveness of American resolve to defend Taiwan will face scrutiny as apprehensions about Trump’s commitment continue to rise. Ultimately, the interplay of strategic decisions could very well shape the fate of the region in the coming years.

Original Source: www.theguardian.com

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