Bitcoin Is Wildly Undervalued, Says Bitwise: ‘Fair Price’ Today Is $230,000
Bitwise Asset Management claims Bitcoin is undervalued, suggesting a fair price of $230,000, which is over 110% above its recent market price. Key factors include rising sovereign-risk concerns and a positive sentiment in the crypto market. Institutional flows are strong, although headline risks could induce volatility. Generally, the outlook for Bitcoin remains bullish as it approaches its all-time high.
Bitcoin is attracting serious attention again as it edges closer to price discovery. According to a report from Bitwise Asset Management shared late Tuesday, researchers estimate Bitcoin’s fair value is currently around $230,000. This figure represents more than a 110% premium above the market price, which was noted at roughly $109,600 on June 11, 2025. Dr. André Dragosch, Bitwise’s Head of Research for Europe, and analyst Ayush Tripathi provided this insight in their latest Crypto Market Compass.
Linking this high valuation to increasing trends in sovereign-risk hedges, Dragosch mentioned that credit-default-swap spreads for one-year U.S. notes are trading near historic levels, similar to the 2023 debt-ceiling crisis. He emphasized Bitcoin’s potential as a safety net against potential sovereign defaults, describing it as a “scarce, decentralized asset that is free of counterparty risks.” This consideration is gaining traction amid concerns of surging U.S. debt-service costs, which the Congressional Budget Office estimates could reach around $3 trillion by 2030.
Bitwise’s report also highlighted that its Cryptoasset Sentiment Index is indicating a positive trend; 12 out of 15 market-breadth gauges are on the rise. Furthermore, the company notes that a risk-appetite index that encompasses multiple asset classes has climbed significantly, reaching peaks not seen in five years. “Both cryptoasset and cross-asset sentiment are now decisively bullish,” Dragosch added, pointing out that Bitcoin’s rebound above $110,000 places it just 2% away from its all-time high near $112,000, achieved in May.
In terms of on-chain dynamics, Bitcoin’s exchange reserves have dropped to 2.91 million BTC, equating to 14.6% of the circulating supply. A noteworthy withdrawal of approximately 390,000 BTC by whales last week supports a bullish outlook. Furthermore, the net exchange-spot outflows have lessened significantly, showing lighter profit-taking compared to previous weeks.
The resilience of derivative positioning reflects the overall strength in the spot market. Bitcoin futures across platforms added around 2,200 BTC, while the CME alone experienced an increase of 6.4k BTC. Additionally, funding rates on perpetual swaps remained mostly positive despite a dip over the weekend. Options markets are also showing healthy signs, with open interest expanding by 27,300 BTC and a 0.55 put-to-call ratio.
Institutional investment flows are further reinforcing this optimistic sentiment. Global crypto ETPs recently attracted $488.5 million, with Bitcoin products accounting for a significant $254.9 million. Notably, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs led the market, recording $525 million in inflows, despite a minor outflow from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust. Bitwise’s own products are faring well, too, pulling in $78.1 million, while their European ETP saw only slight outflows.
However, Bitwise does caution that heightened headline risks may still trigger sudden short-term drop-offs in price. A brief conflict between high-profile personalities such as Elon Musk and Donald Trump recently sent Bitcoin back temporarily to $100,000. Still, Dragosch believes that uncertainty regarding U.S. economic policy has likely peaked and is on a declining trend. Recent job growth stats further support this claim.
As Bitcoin outperforms traditional assets this year, Bitwise analysts believe the narrative surrounding it is shifting from a purely speculative asset to one seen as a macro hedge. How the market responds to the $230,000 valuation will depend on factors like sovereign-risk premiums and institutional adoption rates. The underlying momentum, however, appears to be evident across various data metrics. “Bitcoin also reclaimed 110k USD and is close to its previous all-time high,” the report concludes, indicating that this might just be the beginning for Bitcoin’s financial journey.
In summary, Bitcoin is perceived as significantly undervalued by Bitwise Asset Management, with a suggested fair value of $230,000. Influencing factors include a bullish market sentiment and declining sovereign-risk perceptions. Institutional interest also appears to be rising, contributing to the positive outlook for Bitcoin. However, risks remain due to potential negative headlines that might cause temporary price fluctuations. The overall trajectory suggests a shift towards recognition of Bitcoin as a macro hedge, as its market behavior stabilizes.
Original Source: www.newsbtc.com
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