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China’s Perspective on Possible Military Actions Against Iran

Amid escalating tensions around talks involving Iran and the U.S., China is navigating a delicate landscape. It views military confrontation as contrary to its interests, yet it remains prepared for the repercussions. China continues to support Iran diplomatically while managing its regional strategies, focusing on its significant economic ties with Tehran.

Recent optimism regarding talks between Iran and the United States has taken a hit lately. Washington is pulling out personnel from Baghdad and tightening security measures, very likely due to worries of Iranian retaliation in the wake of a potential Israeli military action. For Beijing, however, this escalates into a fine line. A military conflict involving Iran does not align with China’s interests, but if it were to occur, it might not be viewed as a catastrophe either. Throughout its foreign policy, China has invested heavily in the survival of the Iranian government and continues to have significant interests in Tehran — thus, an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities would not fundamentally alter this strategy.

In the last few days, tensions have further intensified. The United States announced on Wednesday that it would evacuate diplomatic personnel from Iraq and allowed military families to leave voluntarily, just after Iran declared an intent to attack U.S. bases if conflict arises. In the event of any conflict, the U.S. will have no choice but to leave the region as all of its bases are within our reach, and we will not hesitate to target all of them in their host countries, warned Iran’s Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh.

Such escalations have been brewing for some time. President Donald Trump described Iran’s response to a proposed deal as unacceptable during a call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. This was followed by a report that the Israeli military is primed for an attack on Iran pending the final go-ahead. An anonymous Israeli source even asserted, The army has made all the preparations; the air force is at peak readiness for an attack. Meanwhile, China has maintained dialogue with Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi regarding the nuclear framework, highlighting its diplomatic stance.

As events unfolded, President Trump expressed doubts about the potential for a deal with Iran, suggesting that he was less confident than before. He signaled that the chances for agreement had diminished since the April ultimatum he issued to Iran. Despite this turmoil, a gathering is scheduled this Sunday in Oman, aiming to continue discussions.

Adding to China’s position, it voted against a resolution from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that suggested Iran was not complying with non-proliferation agreements. This action reinforces China’s commitment to supporting Iran internationally and having the clout to obstruct sanctions should the IAEA’s findings reach the UN Security Council.

It’s worth noting that since the Hamas attacks and the Gaza conflict, China has been observant of changes in the Middle East dynamics. It has been attempting to cater to Arab nations while also drawing distinctions between its approach and that of the U.S. and Israel, albeit while sustaining contacts with groups like Hamas and the Houthis. In the event that Israel targets Iran, expect the diplomatic balancing act to continue.

China has been clear in its preference for diplomatic solutions on Iran’s nuclear issue. This is not just about ideology; protecting its economic interests and strengthening the strategic partnership with Tehran are key components. The benefits range from maintaining lower oil prices to keeping sanctions at bay.

Despite all the uncertainty, it appears China is unlikely to sever ties with Iran. Reports indicate that Iran has ordered missile components from China, with shipments expected soon. With Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian anticipated to visit China shortly, Beijing is seemingly preparing for whatever comes next.

Taking all this into account, it seems China would rather see a new deal emerge but is ready for the eventuality of military action. As long as regime change does not follow a confrontation, Beijing’s priorities will remain intact: Protecting its extensive commercial and strategic interests in Iran while trying to prevent the ripple effects of a wider war in the region.

In summary, current tensions over Iran are closely tied to U.S.-Iran relations, with potential military action looming but China maintaining its strategic interests in Tehran. Beijing appears to balance its support for the Iranian regime with careful diplomatic maneuvering in the region, aiming to protect its economic ties while avoiding open conflict. Despite the escalating situation, China seems prepared to guard its interests irrespective of any military strikes that may occur.

Original Source: www.al-monitor.com