Iran and Turkey Gain Influence in Gaza Negotiations as Egypt’s Role Declines

Iran and Turkey are stepping up in Gaza ceasefire negotiations, diminishing Egypt’s role as a traditional mediator. U.S. President Biden acknowledged Iran’s participation, while Turkey’s influence has increased due to its alliances post-Syria. Egypt, historically central to such talks, now faces challenges within its own borders and international relations.

In a significant development concerning the ongoing crisis in Gaza, both Iran and Turkey have become increasingly active behind the scenes in ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas. This shift underscores a retreat in the role of traditional mediator Egypt, which has traditionally played a crucial part. For nearly 21 months, the conflict has raged on without a clear path to a resolution, as reported by The National and matching information from various sources familiar with the ongoing negotiations.

Current mediation efforts by the United States, Egypt, and Qatar have faced numerous challenges, particularly since the last ceasefire collapsed in March. Neither Israel nor Hamas appear willing to make the necessary compromises, despite rising international pressure related to the humanitarian crisis unfolding in Gaza, which has claimed countless civilian lives.

U.S. President Joe Biden acknowledged Iran’s involvement in these discussions, stating, “Gaza, right now, is in the midst of a massive negotiation between us and Hamas and Israel, and Iran actually is involved.” Though, it’s worth noting that Iran has quietly participated from the very outset after the war began in October 2023, consistently offering guidance to Hamas.

Interestingly, the level of Iran’s involvement has escalated recently, possibly influenced by parallel discussions occurring over Iran’s nuclear program. Steve Witkoff, a key envoy for the Trump administration, leads negotiations on both fronts — Gaza and the nuclear issue. According to one insider, “Iran has been present in the Gaza talks from day one,” but its profile has taken on greater significance lately.

Turkey’s role, while slightly less influential than Iran’s, has also expanded. The country’s dynamics shifted post-war in Syria, where its Islamist allies have formed stronger ties with the West, including the U.S. Turkey maintains important connections with Hamas, serving as a base for some of its leaders, and is considered a potential exile destination for those whom Israel seeks to displace.

Insights from sources indicate that “Turkey has shown itself to the United States as a capable regional player,” capable of affecting the landscape in areas like Gaza and Syria. Meanwhile, Egypt appears to have lost clout in the negotiations, not solely due to Iran and Turkey’s rising roles, but also as a consequence of its increasingly strained ties with Washington.

The introduction of Bishara Bahbah, an American-Palestinian intermediary, has shifted some dynamics traditionally held by Egypt, which shares borders with both Israel and Gaza. This has led to a perspective that Egypt’s regional influence is diminishing, as stated by Michael Hanna, a Middle East expert. “Its relevance at present is dictated by its geography,” he noted.

Historically, Egypt has played a pivotal role in negotiating truces in the Israel-Hamas conflict, but its relationship with Hamas has been rocky. Recent years have seen a warming of ties, contrasting sharply with its fraying relationship with Israel, now at its lowest point since their peace treaty in 1979.

The implications of ongoing conflict are pressing for Egypt. The capture of parts of the Rafah crossing by Israel last year and continued disruptions due to conflict, such as attacks by Yemen’s Houthis, have severely affected Egypt’s national security and economic situation. The financial strain from diminished Suez Canal traffic has further compounded these issues, leading to a state of economic crisis in Egypt.

In a critical analysis, Ammar Ali Hassan, an Egyptian sociologist, pointed out that while Egypt’s military might remains, the country’s political clarity and will have waned. He warned that this lack of vision has shifted priorities toward internal stability over external influence, as Egypt grapples with economic challenges and regional chaos around it.

In summary, the involvement of Iran and Turkey in Gaza negotiations illustrates a significant shift in the diplomatic landscape, marking a retreat for Egypt. While Iran has increased its influence behind the scenes, Turkey has also secured a more pronounced role, potentially altered by the dynamics of the Syrian civil war. Meanwhile, Egypt’s position appears diminished, affected by its strained relations with the U.S. and economic troubles. This evolving scenario not only impacts Gaza but has broader implications for regional stability and international relations.

Original Source: www.thenationalnews.com

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