Bitcoin Traders Eye Fed Meeting Dot Plot as Key Resistance Levels Persist
Bitcoin traders focus on the Fed’s interest rate dot plot ahead of Wednesday’s decision. BTC struggles under crucial resistance of $110,000 with $112,000 overhead. Expected rate cuts have fallen as market concerns rise. Technical levels indicate possible upside if resistance is breached, while support levels are critical for potential declines.
Bitcoin traders are currently fixated on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate dot plot rather than the imminent rate decision itself, which will be announced on Wednesday at 18:00 UTC. The cryptocurrency remains encumbered by a crucial resistance level set at $110,000, with significant overhead resistance yet to be breached at $112,000, a level which has held firm since June 5. Analysts suggest that the dot plot, which reflects the rate projections from Fed officials, may steer market movements significantly, particularly if the projections for rate cuts turn out to be fewer than expected.
The odds for the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this week have dwindled to less than 0.1%, with most expecting the rates to remain fixed between 4.25% and 4.50%. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, there is a 99.9% likelihood of rates holding steady. In light of this, Bitcoin investors are keeping a watchful eye on any potential dovish surprises that may indicate increased rate cuts, which could, in turn, invigorate demand for cryptocurrencies.
The pressure has intensified from political figures, including President Donald Trump, who has consistently advocated for lower interest rates, thereby increasing scrutiny on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming statements following the rate announcement. Powell’s tone during this address will be pivotal; any nuanced language could sway crypto market prices significantly. Expectations around rate cuts have already been recalibrated from 100 basis points to a mere 50 amid concerns over a robust job market and inflation surging past the Fed’s 2% target, with global tensions further complicating the outlook for potential cuts.
In terms of technical market structures, Bitcoin’s latest hurdle saw it fail to breach the $110,000 benchmark once more, with prices not closing above $112,000 since early June. To maintain upward momentum, Bitcoin needs to reclaim the $108,000 psychological level and convert the $112,000 resistance into support. A significant supply zone between $109,000 and $110,500 needs to be cleared to unlock further gains for bulls in this scenario.
On the downside, bears aim to keep $106,000 as a resistance point. Key support is anchored at $104,000, where the 50-day moving average rests. Another support level to consider is the previous range low of $102,800 from last Friday. Should the price drop below this, the $100,000 psychological mark will be crucial to watch. Historical and technical indicators, like the 100-day and 200-day moving averages that stand at $95,800 and $94,600, respectively, offer further essential support—data suggests liquidity risks around the $92,000-$93,000 cluster.
Market speculation also exists around Bitcoin potentially dropping to $100,000 by the end of June, with some estimates providing a 42% probability. Conversely, there’s also a 23% chance of Bitcoin reaching new highs above $115,000. Notably, the continuous institutional buying trend remains. Insights from the crypto trading firm QCP indicate substantial inflows have been recorded, particularly with Metaplanet and spot Bitcoin ETFs, marking seven consecutive weeks of positive movement in that area. Furthermore, the Binance liquidation heatmap uncovers major cluster activity near $112,000, indicating that breaking this level could lead to short squeezes as high as $114,000.
In conclusion, Bitcoin traders are eagerly awaiting the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and dot plot announcement, as these factors will likely play a major role in influencing market trends. Current resistance levels remain firmly in place, and the technical landscape suggests both upward and downward pressures. Traders must stay vigilant, particularly around major support levels, as geopolitical and economic conditions continue to evolve.
Original Source: coincentral.com
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