Gulf States Leverage Israeli-Iranian Conflict to Boost Regional Influence

Gulf nations allied with Trump, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, are gaining influence amid tensions between Israel and Iran, reshaping the Middle East’s geopolitical landscape. Trump’s strategic interests align with these nations as they seek to mitigate Iranian power while maintaining a stance on Israeli actions. Qatar’s role in facilitating diplomatic negotiations showcases the evolving dynamics as these states assert leadership.

In the aftermath of the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, Gulf nations closely aligned with President Donald Trump are finding themselves in a more influential position. Countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates are taking on new diplomatic roles, as they attempt to assuage longstanding security concerns regarding Iranian power. This shift comes amidst broader power dynamics involving Iran, Israel, and Turkey, a NATO member.

As Dr. Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a political science professor in the United Arab Emirates, pointed out, Gulf countries are now viewed as pivotal players both regionally and globally. “Gulf countries have become a center of gravity in the region, and have emerged as global centers of power collectively and individually,” he noted, emphasizing their growing diplomatic reach across capitals from Washington to Beijing.

The current conflict is prompting what many call a strategic realignment in the Middle East. With rising uncertainties about the future direction of the region, Arab countries are eager to demonstrate leadership while also keeping a critical eye on Iran. However, they also aim to maintain a certain distance from Israel, making their geopolitical balancing act all the more complex.

For Trump, the relationships with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE are of significant strategic importance, and this sentiment was clear during his first overseas trip, where these nations were key destinations. Business and military agreements were solidified, while during that trip, Trump notably did not stop in Israel. Dr. Neil Quilliam, an associate fellow at Chatham House, remarked on how these nations have embraced transnational diplomacy, which aligns well with the Trump administration’s interests.

The shaky ceasefire between Israel and Iran is tenuous but does not diminish the standing of the Gulf states. Iran’s missile bases and its nuclear program have been significantly disrupted. With Israel currently focused on its security concerns regarding Iran, it may soon face more pressure from the U.S. to limit its military actions.

Qatar’s engagement during this conflict stands out, particularly as its U.S. air base faced Iranian missile fire in response to American strikes on Iranian sites. Quilliam highlighted Qatar’s role in facilitating dialogue, noting, “given the strength of ties between Qatar and Iran, Doha was able to help negotiate the ceasefire.” Qatar’s Foreign Minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, echoed sentiments of constructive engagement with Iran, emphasizing a desire for a peaceful understanding.

Despite the complexities involving Iran, the Gulf states, along with Egypt, have been vocal critical players of Israeli and U.S. actions concerning Iran. Abdulla expressed that the decline of Iranian influence might benefit the region, while also raising concerns about Israeli power dynamics. The question of Gulf states’ future relations with Israel hangs in the balance, especially in light of their previous agreements, like the Abraham Accords, which Saudi Arabia and Qatar have yet to join.

Following the recent Gaza attack on Israeli positions by Iranian-backed Hamas, the path to further agreements has become more complicated for these Gulf nations. Still, countries that have already established ties with Israel do not seem ready to retract those relationships entirely. A significant test for these states will be their political engagement in Gaza and their efforts to support the push for a Palestinian state.

While they can offer support for Palestinian causes, experts like Quilliam caution that Gulf states may lack the clout needed to sway Trump into urging Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu towards a two-state solution. Furthermore, their criticisms of Israel’s actions in Gaza illustrate how their positions can sometimes diverge from U.S. interests, underscoring the need to navigate this nuanced relationship carefully.

In conclusion, the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict appears to be reshaping the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East, with Gulf states strengthening their roles amid shifting alliances. As these nations balance their relationships and strategic interests, their influence may continue to evolve in the coming years.

In summary, Gulf states are emerging from the Israel-Iran conflict with renewed power and influence, reshaping regional dynamics. Their established relations with Trump, juxtaposed with complex ties to Israel and scrutiny of Iranian actions, highlight the intricate web of diplomacy in the area. The path forward requires deft navigation as these nations balance various interests, while neither forsaking their historical ties nor compromising their emerging strategic positions.

Original Source: www.newsweek.com

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