Bitcoin Price Could Surge to $118,000 By Year-End: Insights from Kelly Greer

Cryptonews Dante Raeburn October 2, 2024

Bitcoin Price Could Surge to $118,000 By Year-End: Insights from Kelly Greer

In her recent analysis, Kelly Greer, VP of Trading at Galaxy Digital, argues that Bitcoin could reach $118,000 by year-end, driven by historical performance data indicating an average Q4 return of 85%. She notes current market conditions may not fully capitalize on this potential due to investor hesitancy linked to the U.S. presidential election and competition from other assets. Positive macroeconomic factors, recent institutional developments, and Bitcoin’s reflexive asset nature further bolster this outlook, although potential risks from the Federal Reserve and equity markets remain pertinent.

In a detailed analysis posted on X, Kelly Greer, Vice President of Trading at Galaxy Digital, elucidates several reasons that suggest Bitcoin may reach a price of $118,000 by the conclusion of this year. Her analysis draws upon historical price patterns, current market trends, and overarching economic indicators that collectively establish a conducive environment for Bitcoin’s potential upward trajectory. Greer commences her argument by emphasizing Bitcoin’s historical performance in the fourth quarter (Q4) during previous years. According to her observations, since 2020, Bitcoin has exhibited an average return of approximately 85% from its intra-quarter peaks during Q4. This figure encompasses a remarkable maximum return of 230% in some years and a minimum decline of 12% in others. “BTC average Q4 return (to max [intra quarter high watermark, full q return]) since 2020 is +85% (worst -12%, best +230%)—press you to find a stronger asymmetry,” she articulates, thereby indicating a substantial upside relative to potential losses, thus portraying Q4 as a historically favorable period for Bitcoin’s growth. Should Bitcoin simply achieve an average Q4 performance, it could plausibly result in a year-end price of $118,000. Furthermore, should it exceed previous records and reach a return of 230%, the price could escalate beyond $200,000. Greer also highlights that the current market landscape may not be optimally allocated to capitalize on this potential growth. She identifies two critical factors contributing to this underallocation: investor apprehension regarding the upcoming United States presidential election on November 5, and a notable influx of investments into alternative assets, such as gold and China’s A-shares, which may detract capital away from Bitcoin investments. “I still don’t think the market is allocated accordingly—2024 is a unique case where some portion of the market is underindexing on the Q4 asymmetry due to a) Nov 5 US election risk and/or b) other assets are screaming (gold, China A-shares etc.),” Greer remarks. In support of her perspective regarding market positioning, Greer discusses her interactions with various risk managers, noting that recent observations indicate “low volatility and contained perp funding,” which points to conservative trading behavior with limited expectations for major price shifts. Further reinforcing an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin, Greer identifies numerous macroeconomic and industry dynamics that she believes cultivate a highly favorable overall context for Bitcoin’s performance. One pivotal factor is the recent announcement regarding global economic stimulus initiatives in major economies, including the United States and China, with the exception of Japan. Additionally, Greer mentions BNY Mellon’s recent acquisition of a SAB 121 exemption, allowing it to provide custody services for Bitcoin devoid of stringent capital constraints. This development, she regards as “massive and underappreciated,” has the potential to substantially facilitate financing within the crypto sector. Moreover, Greer indicates that the influx of Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) investments has been “very constructive,” with a considerable resurgence of spot Bitcoin inflows recently observed. Notably, last Friday recorded $494.8 million in net flows, marking it as the highest inflow day of the quarter and since June 4th. Another encouraging indicator reported by Greer is the formation of agreements between Bitcoin miners and hyperscale cloud service providers, enhancing operational efficiency and lowering costs. Furthermore, she assesses that significant sell-offs that might have previously pressured prices are now mostly resolved, anticipating that “demand from FTX cash distros [is] around the corner,” indicating a potential surge in investment from funds previously held on the FTX exchange. Nonetheless, Greer remains cognizant of several risks that could hinder Bitcoin’s progression, such as tightened signals from the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policies and potential downturns in equity markets. Regardless, she maintains a positive outlook on market sentiment. “There are risks of course—Fed signaling, equities pullback, what have you—but net net vibes are quite good, and flows are just getting started,” she asserts. Greer designates Bitcoin as a “reflexive asset,” explicating, “BTC is the ultimate reflexive asset: price -> flows -> price.” This reflects on the notion that a rising Bitcoin price could magnetize additional investment flows, thereby triggering a self-affirming cycle of price appreciation. As the market approaches Q4, Bitcoin has recently cleared a pivotal resistance level at $65,000. Should it reclaim the $70,000 benchmark, Greer posits that inflows may further accelerate, as investors are likely to react positively to the prevailing momentum while recalling the robust Q4 performances from previous years.

The analysis centers on Bitcoin’s price potential as the year draws to a close, informed by historical trends, investor behavior, macroeconomic factors, and notable developments within the cryptocurrency industry. This context highlights the intricate relationships between external variables and Bitcoin’s market performance, serving as a backdrop for the optimistic projections discussed by Greer.

In conclusion, Kelly Greer’s analysis presents a compelling case for Bitcoin’s potential surge to $118,000 by year’s end, grounded in historical data showcasing strong Q4 performance, macroeconomic support, and recent institutional developments. Despite identified risks, the overall sentiment surrounding Bitcoin remains optimistic, suggesting an exciting period ahead for cryptocurrency investors.

Original Source: www.tradingview.com