Bitcoin Price May Hit All-Time High Before Upcoming Election, According to Standard Chartered
As the U.S. presidential election approaches, Bitcoin is expected to challenge its all-time high of $73,800, driven by strong inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, increased bullish sentiment in the options market, and rising odds for Donald Trump’s election. Standard Chartered projects that these factors could support Bitcoin’s price growth, currently around $67,000, with a significant focus on the next 48 hours for potential breakout movements.
As the U.S. presidential election approaches in a mere three weeks, Bitcoin is poised to potentially reach its previous all-time high of nearly $73,800, according to a recent analysis by Standard Chartered, a prominent British multinational bank. This anticipated price surge is attributed to several influential factors. In their communication with Decrypt, Standard Chartered highlighted the significant role of strong inflows into Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), a renewed interest in high-value Bitcoin options, and the rising likelihood of Donald Trump winning the election, as indicated by prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi. The report detailed that net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have exceeded $19 billion, akin to approximately 315,000 BTC, signaling a substantial uptick in institutional investment. Furthermore, the addition of 1,500 BTC to the open interest for $80,000 call options expiring on December 27 underscores a growing bullish sentiment among traders. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $67,000, with analysts projecting that persistent inflows and shifting derivatives will facilitate a price increase, likely breaking through its key resistance level of $73,800 in the run-up to the election. The connection between Bitcoin’s price movements and the political landscape is becoming increasingly noticeable, particularly as Trump’s election probabilities improve. Polymarket estimates Trump’s chances of victory at approximately 56%, with a 70% conditional probability of a Republican sweep should he prevail. Standard Chartered analysts observed, “The crypto market bid is stronger with Trump’s odds improving.” A victory for Trump is perceived to benefit the digital assets sector, potentially driving Bitcoin’s price upward in the short term. Despite some prior negative remarks regarding cryptocurrency, Trump has positioned himself as a supporter of digital assets, whereas his opponent, Kamala Harris, has only recently begun to outline her policy approach to cryptocurrencies. Additional insights from Bernstein Research align with the optimistic outlook for Bitcoin. They noted a 14% increase in Bitcoin’s value over the past month, solidifying its hold above the $65,000 threshold, with substantial ETF inflows contributing to this momentum. Bernstein remarked, “Bitcoin ETFs printed a large inflow number yesterday, crossing $550 million, the kind of buying we haven’t seen in weeks,” thus evidencing the burgeoning institutional demand. The legitimacy of the digital asset ecosystem is on the rise, with global asset managers establishing frameworks for broader engagement from wealth advisors and private banks. Bernstein anticipates that this groundwork will yield accelerated inflows, responsive to Bitcoin’s price dynamics. Furthermore, MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor and recognized as a corporate bellwether for Bitcoin’s performance, has seen its NAV multiple climb recently, even as Bitcoin prices have remained relatively stable. MicroStrategy holds the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury reserve, currently amounting to 252,500 BTC, valued at approximately $16.6 billion. According to Standard Chartered, this upward trend in MicroStrategy’s stock often serves as an early indicator of Bitcoin’s market strength. Analysts remarked that the rise in MicroStrategy’s stock could be attributed to developments such as BNY Mellon’s exemption from SAB 121, which permits the firm to lend out its BTC holdings for yield generation. Standard Chartered posits that the upcoming 48 hours are critical for Bitcoin’s potential breakout above its seven-month downtrend, with a successful surge expected to target $70,000, and possibly reach all-time highs as the election date draws near. Bernstein additionally noted that while Bitcoin miners currently lag in performance relative to the broader market, they might foresee significant benefits as Bitcoin nears new highs, with prices above $74,000 marking a pivotal moment for mining profitability.
Bitcoin, the first and largest decentralized cryptocurrency, continues to attract significant attention from both individual and institutional investors. With the 2024 U.S. presidential election looming, political factors are emerging as influential determinants of Bitcoin’s market movements. The correlation between election dynamics, regulatory perceptions, and cryptocurrency adoption creates an engaging narrative in the financial landscape, shaping investor behavior. Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) focused on Bitcoin represent a key vehicle for institutional investment, bringing new capital into the market and influencing Bitcoin’s price through demand dynamics. Against this backdrop, analysts from major financial institutions are closely observing market developments and providing informed forecasts reliant on both technical indicators and larger socio-political trends. The intersection of cryptocurrency and traditional finance has rendered Bitcoin’s market behavior increasingly relevant, particularly amidst evolving political sentiments.
In conclusion, Standard Chartered’s analysis suggests that Bitcoin is on a trajectory towards potentially reaching its previous all-time high, supported by significant institutional interest and favorable political forecasts. The recent influx of capital into Bitcoin ETFs and the positive sentiment surrounding Trump’s election odds could stimulate continued price growth. Analysts are optimistic about forthcoming significant price actions, contingent upon Bitcoin’s ability to maintain its momentum leading up to the U.S. election. As institutional demand solidifies and political conditions evolve, the future of Bitcoin remains a focal point of interest for investors and analysts alike.
Original Source: decrypt.co
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