Bitcoin’s Potential Plummet: A Detailed Analysis by CryptoQuant Head
In a recent analysis, Julio Moreno, the Head of Research at CryptoQuant, has examined the potential lower level that Bitcoin could reach amidst its current struggles.
Moreno’s assessment, featured in a post on X, focuses on the “realized price” metric, which measures the average acquisition cost of 1 to 3 month-old Bitcoin holders. This indicator utilizes on-chain data to evaluate the market’s cost basis, with implications for potential price movements.
When the spot price of Bitcoin exceeds the realized price, it suggests that investors as a whole are experiencing unrealized gains. Conversely, a spot price below this metric indicates losses across the market. Should the realized price equal the spot price, it implies that the average investor is breaking even on their investment. Moreno specifically applies this metric to a subset of investors – 1 to 3-month-old holders, rather than the entire user base – revealing a distinct pattern in their realized price trend over the past year.
According to Moreno, the realized price of these short-term holders has historically served as a support level, influencing their market behavior. Currently standing at $36,700, this indicator suggests a potential lower level for Bitcoin should the ongoing correction continue.
Since Bitcoin’s recent drop below the $45,000 mark, the cryptocurrency has been moving within a narrow range, hovering around $42,500. This analysis underscores the potential impact of the realized price metric on Bitcoin’s price movements.
Julio Moreno’s insights offer valuable considerations for investors navigating the current market conditions. It is essential to approach this information with due diligence, as the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve.
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