Sudan’s ongoing civil war, driven by rivalry between military factions, poses severe security risks, with recent violence highlighting the implications for regional stability and the potential for jihadist exploitation amidst deteriorating conditions.

The ongoing civil conflict in Sudan is compounded by the complex interplay of international interests, which significantly hampers the prospects for achieving a sustainable peace agreement. The war has resulted in widespread violence, prompting fears of instability spilling over into neighboring countries such as South Sudan and Chad. The emergence of ethnic violence and the proliferation of arms could exacerbate these tensions, culminating in a power vacuum that might facilitate the activities of jihadist groups amid deteriorating socio-economic conditions. Notably, on October 25, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary group, were implicated in the deaths of at least 124 individuals during a violent raid in the eastern state of Gezira. This brutality followed the surrender of a high-ranking RSF commander to the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), leading to retaliation against civilians in the commander’s area, thereby displacing thousands. This incident exemplifies the broader civil unrest that erupted on April 15, 2023, stemming primarily from the intense rivalry between the SAF and RSF factions.

The civil war in Sudan commenced on April 15, 2023, as two military factions, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), clashed in a struggle for power. This conflict has its roots in historical grievances and political rivalries, with significant impacts on civilian populations and regional stability. The international community’s varied interests in Sudan complicate the situation, leading to continued hostilities and making effective diplomatic resolutions challenging.

In summary, the persistent civil war in Sudan presents grave security challenges not only within its borders but also for the surrounding region. The ongoing violence, compounded by international involvement, risks creating an environment ripe for further destabilization, potential ethnic violence, and exploitation by extremist groups. Addressing these multifaceted issues is critical for restoring peace and stability in Sudan and its neighboring countries.

Original Source: worldview.stratfor.com

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