Following the removal of Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh is in a state of political upheaval with the formation of the National Citizen’s Party. The interim government faces corruption and economic challenges while navigating increasing tensions with India and rising Islamist influence. Reforms before the 2025 elections are crucial for stability and growth.

Seven months subsequent to the departure of Sheikh Hasina from her position as Bangladesh’s prime minister, a student-driven initiative has founded the National Citizen’s Party to redefine the nation’s political landscape. The interim administration, led by Mohammad Yunus, faces the challenges of entrenched corruption and economic instability while striving to maintain fair political competition. Its decision to revoke the ban on Islamist parties and release detained leaders has raised concerns regarding a possible Islamist shift in the political arena, compounded by attacks on Hindu minorities that have further strained the relationship with India.

A United Nations report has uncovered ‘reasonable grounds’ to suggest that Hasina’s government is implicated in acts akin to crimes against humanity during the July-August 2024 protests that resulted in approximately 1,400 fatalities. Following her resignation, Hasina fled to India, paving the way for Khaleda Zia of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party to make a potential comeback in the forthcoming elections tentatively slated for late 2025 or early 2026. Zia has been released from house arrest and acquitted of prior corruption allegations.

The interim government has introduced contentious policies, notably the lifting of the 2013 ban on the Jamaat-e-Islami party and the release of pertinent Islamist leaders, as well as a former State Minister convicted of corruption and aiding anti-Indian insurgency. Economic hardships stemming from Hasina’s administration persist, with a committee disclosing systemic corruption and a staggering US$240 billion in illicit financial outflows during her governance from 2009 to 2023.

Diplomatic tensions have escalated concerning Hasina’s legal status in India, where Bangladesh has called for her extradition linked to the violent suppression of protests driven by government job quota frustrations. India’s hesitance to comply has bred suspicion, and recent inflammatory remarks from Hasina have catalyzed public outcry within Bangladesh. The current climate has seen increased threats against Bangladeshi Hindus, previously considered allies of Hasina’s government, now vulnerable under the rising tide of anti-India sentiment.

Bangladesh’s economy exhibits signs of recovery, particularly in the garment sector, which reported a 13% increase in exports from June to December 2024 compared to the prior year. Inflation rates are beginning to decrease, moving from 11.38% in November 2024 to 9.94% in January 2025. However, the nation remains burdened by substantial foreign debt totaling US$44.38 billion accumulated during Hasina’s tenure, alongside a plethora of corruption across multiple sectors. Investigations into financial irregularities involving Hasina and her niece, U.K. Anti-Corruption Minister Tulip Siddiq, are ongoing.

Interim Prime Minister Yunus is currently focusing on economic reforms aimed at repatriating laundered funds and attracting new investments. Experts from the World Bank predict that, contingent upon effective political stability and governance reforms, Bangladesh’s GDP growth could increase from 4.1% in FY25 to 5.4% in FY26. The shift in leadership dynamics post-Hasina is apparent, with the BNP attempting to regain momentum while fresh political entities emerge from the recent student-led uprising.

The evolution of power dynamics since Hasina’s ouster places the Awami League in a compromised position, with Zia’s return revitalizing the BNP, despite lingering allegations of corruption. The interim government under Yunus faces mounting pressure to implement electoral reforms. The establishment of the National Citizen’s Party illustrates a significant reconfiguration away from traditional party politics, addressing youth concerns surrounding governance and justice.

Furthermore, U.S. political engagement with Bangladesh appears to be waning; President Trump has indicated a shift towards favoring Indian interests over Bangladesh in the sphere of diplomacy. Concurrently, Bangladesh is recalibrating its foreign relations, fostering ties with Pakistan and enhancing cooperation with China, including trade and military relations, while also seeking to broaden contacts with diverse political figures from opposition groups and student movements.

In summary, the political landscape of Bangladesh is undergoing significant transformation following Sheikh Hasina’s resignation. The emergence of new political forces, the challenges faced by the interim government, and shifting foreign relations, particularly with India and China, underscore the complexities that lie ahead. The potential for systemic reforms will play a critical role in stabilizing the nation and overcoming past corrupt practices, but the successful navigation of these changes remains contingent upon addressing internal dynamics and external pressures.

Original Source: www.asiapacific.ca

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