This article explores the intricate U.S. relationship with Russia and China amidst ongoing tensions over the Ukraine conflict. It discusses Trump’s approach to these relationships, the potential return of Western companies to Russia, and public sentiment regarding the Sino-Russian alliance, while highlighting the complexities of geopolitical interests.

Western leaders have urged China to reduce or stop its support for Russia amid the Ukraine conflict, yet China maintains that it respects territorial integrity and aspires for peace. Unlike many UN member nations, China has not condemned Russia’s invasion, and their military and diplomatic ties—exemplified by joint military exercises—have aided Russia in overcoming its isolation.

While President Donald Trump claims good relations with both Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, Washington experts recognize the China-Russia partnership as a significant threat to U.S. interests. President Biden previously sought a strategic dialogue with China, but Trump’s administration seems to favor normalizing relations with Russia while imposing trade penalties on China.

The White House is contemplating the restoration of economic cooperation with Russia and has hinted at easing sanctions. Economic expert Charles Hecker notes that Western companies would likely return to Russia, particularly in energy and minerals sectors. He emphasizes that companies accustomed to high-risk environments are already engaged in similar markets elsewhere.

However, Hecker warns that this potential return would not signify a thaw in U.S.-Russian relations or a rift between Russia and China. He states, “I think it will be very difficult for the West to pull Russia away from China.” He further observes that President Putin’s ongoing antagonism towards a Western-dominated order reinforces the collaboration with China, particularly in energy.

Research by U.S.-based FilterLabs highlights underlying tensions between China and Russia, contradicting the notion of strong bilateral trust. Vasily Gatov, one of the study’s authors, points out a historical context of mistrust as a vulnerability in their relationship. He indicates that public sentiment in both nations reflects skepticism regarding the alliance, stating, “China does not perceive Russia as a reliable, safe and equal partner.”

Despite the Kremlin’s desires, China’s economic footprint in Russia is reportedly still less significant than that of the U.S. or Europe prior to the Ukraine invasion. Gatov also emphasizes that, while their interests may overlap, fundamental differences in geopolitical focus and political ideologies exist.

Some experts challenge the reliability of FilterLabs’ findings, arguing that online opinions do not significantly influence state policy. Alexander Gabuev of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center asserts that public sentiment rarely impacts strategic decisions, particularly regarding military cooperation between China and Russia.

A pivotal aspect in analyzing the implications of U.S.-Russia rapprochement on Sino-Russian relations relates to Trump’s perception of China. Ali Wyne from the International Crisis Group notes the bipartisan consensus in Washington views China as the primary competitor. However, Trump diverges, viewing Xi Jinping as a friend and relying on his personal rapport to reshape U.S.-China ties moving forward.

The complex relationship between the United States, Russia, and China is characterized by deep-rooted ties, strategic interests, and historical tensions. Efforts by the U.S. to improve relations with Russia may not weaken Sino-Russian cooperation, as both nations share mutual interests, particularly against Western dominance. Additionally, public sentiment in China and Russia indicates underlying tensions, but this may not directly influence state policies or strategic alignments. The future of U.S.-China relations under Trump remains uncertain as he expresses a unique perspective of friendship towards Xi Jinping.

Original Source: www.connectedtoindia.com

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