Bitcoin-Gold Ratio Breaks Long-Standing Support Amidst Economic Uncertainty
Bitcoin’s support trendline against gold has broken for the first time in 12 years, coinciding with gold hitting a record price. As Bitcoin drops amidst notable outflows from its ETFs, analysts warn of potential bearish trends ahead. The broader economic factors influencing these changes reflect a growing investor preference for gold amid financial uncertainty, creating a stark contrast in market trajectories for both assets.
On March 14, Bitcoin (BTC) broke a critical rising support trendline against gold (XAU) that had been intact for over a decade, a move that prominent analyst NorthStar warns could mark the end of Bitcoin’s long-standing bull run if it remains below this trendline.
As gold prices surged to a record high exceeding $3,000 per ounce, up 12.80% year-to-date, Bitcoin faced a notable decline of 11% in 2025. The contrasting performances highlight significant net flows in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking cryptocurrency and gold, with gold ETFs pulling in over $6.48 billion in the U.S. alone, compared to Bitcoin’s $1.46 billion outflow in the same timeframe.
The differing trajectories are largely attributed to increased macroeconomic uncertainty and a prevailing risk-off sentiment spurred by President Donald Trump’s trade policies, including new tariffs impacting global relations. As a result, investors have shifted towards traditional safe-haven assets such as gold, while Bitcoin mirrors broader risk-on market trends.
Historically, the current breakdown in the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio reflects patterns observed during previous market corrections, notably from March 2021 to March 2022, where a similar bearish divergence in the BTC/XAU ratio led to substantial downturns. If this fractal pattern continues, Bitcoin may see vulnerability in price, especially if the ratio consistently falls below key support levels, signaling potential declines toward $65,000. However, analysts from Nansen remain cautiously optimistic, suggesting any corrections could signify a continuation of the bullish trend if key support levels hold.
In summary, the breakdown of the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio raises critical concerns regarding Bitcoin’s market stability amidst rising gold prices and investor shifts towards safer assets. Historical patterns suggest potential risks of significant price declines for Bitcoin, while analysts remain divided on whether this sets the stage for a bear market or simply a correction within a broader bullish context. The outcome will depend significantly on future market behavior and support levels.
Original Source: cointelegraph.com
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