China’s nuclear arsenal modernization is accelerating, but it has not achieved parity with the U.S., according to a report. China possesses approximately 600 nuclear warheads, with only 24 currently deployed. There are uncertainties regarding future arms control negotiations, especially in light of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.

A recent report by the Federation of American Scientists indicates that China is swiftly modernizing its nuclear arsenal but has not reached parity with the United States. Following a call from U.S. President Donald Trump for arms reduction talks, China has emphasized that any nuclear reductions should start with the substantial U.S. stockpile, asserting its development of nuclear capabilities is a response to perceived threats and a need to break a nuclear monopoly.

The report, titled “Chinese Nuclear Weapons, 2025,” estimates that China possesses approximately 600 nuclear warheads, primarily stored, with only 24 deployed. This aligns with the Pentagon’s last report which projected that China could surpass 1,000 operational nuclear weapons by 2030. Despite advances, the Federation asserts no parity with U.S. forces is likely, with future projections of 1,500 warheads being less than half the current U.S. arsenal.

China’s nuclear strategy includes developing a nuclear triad comprising submarines, land-based missiles, and bombers. The Federation suggests that while China maintains a no-first-use policy, its growing non-nuclear capabilities may indicate a willingness to utilize nuclear options if necessary, particularly in high-stakes scenarios such as potential conflicts over Taiwan.

The Pentagon’s assessment indicates that China might consider first-use of nuclear weapons if faced with a serious threat to its regime, particularly in the event of a military defeat related to Taiwan, which it claims as its territory. The Chinese Defense Ministry maintains a stance of self-defense and minimal nuclear force, stressing its commitment to a no-first-use nuclear policy.

The current state of U.S.-China arms control discussions appears stagnant, potentially due to Washington’s ongoing arms sales to Taiwan. The resumption of these talks remains uncertain as both nations navigate their nuclear strategies amidst changing geopolitical dynamics.

In summary, while China is modernizing its nuclear arsenal at a rapid pace, it still has not reached parity with the United States. The issue is further complicated by differing stances on arms reduction, with China insisting primarily on U.S. disarmament. The potential for nuclear engagement, particularly regarding Taiwan, remains a crucial concern as both nations continue to reassess their military strategies.

Original Source: www.newsweek.com

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