Market Anticipates 25bps Rate Cut by Federal Reserve Amid Political Calls for Larger Reduction
As of September 2, 2024, a significant majority of market participants are predicting a 25 basis points (bps) reduction in the federal funds rate by the U.S. Federal Reserve at the forthcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for September 18. Currently, the federal funds rate stands at a notable 5.25%-5.50%, marking the highest level observed in the past 23 years following a series of 11 rate increases over a year and a half period. The CME Fedwatch tool indicates that there is approximately a 69% probability of a 25bps cut, whereas the likelihood of a 50bps cut is estimated to be around 31%. Furthermore, the prediction market Polymarket reports a 76% chance for a 25bps decrement, with just 21% anticipating a larger cut of 50bps. A mere 4% of participants on Polymarket are advocating for the maintenance of the current interest rate. Notably, there exists no consensus in these predictions for a 75bps cut, notwithstanding calls from certain political figures such as Senator Elizabeth Warren, who have argued for its necessity in addressing economic concerns.
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