Bitcoin has experienced a notable decline of 10% following its recent halving event, amidst a considerable delay in reaching its all-time high. In his latest insights shared on the platform X, esteemed analyst Peter Brandt has pointed out that Bitcoin’s previous all-time high from 2021 remains unchallenged even when adjusted for inflation. This observation highlights the ongoing struggles of Bitcoin, which has failed to rally back to its USD pinnacle of $73,800 since mid-March, particularly in the aftermath of the most recent halving that took place in April.

Brandt elaborates on the prolonged duration without price discovery since the halving, stating, “I measure cycles differently than most,” as he differentiates between the cyclical highs and lows of Bitcoin and the implications of halving events. He explains that his cycle analysis commences from the previous bear market low in November 2022, establishing that the high of the current cycle is anchored to the prior low before the halving, recorded in March 2024. Remarkably, this high has yet to be surpassed, with the peak of the prior bull cycle, adjusted for inflation, still holding. This strengthens the notion that the 2021 peak of $69,000 poses a significant resistance level, should Bitcoin/USD embark on a sustained upward trend.

However, Brandt underscores that this situation does not imply Bitcoin is entrenched in a downtrend since the last all-time high. Market sentiments within the Bitcoin community remain apprehensive, particularly as other analysts recognize that the digital asset is not necessarily out of turbulent waters this month. Reports from the blockchain analytics platform CryptoQuant indicate that while the impending easing of United States financial policy might incite a short-term rebound, the overall trend may continue to exhibit frustration. Contributor Crypto Dan remarked in a Quicktake blog post, “Due to the anticipated U.S. base rate cut on September 18, positive market sentiment may prompt a brief resurgence, yet without a substantial shift in market dynamics, we may face continued perplexities through 2024.”

Concerns persist that some forecasts predict a potential dip in Bitcoin’s value by as much as 20% contingent upon the Fed’s expected interest rate cut in September. Thus, it becomes critically important for investors and stakeholders within the cryptocurrency market to remain cognizant of these dynamics and to approach future investment decisions with thorough research and caution. This article does not extend investment advice or recommendations, as every trading decision carries inherent risks, and individuals are encouraged to engage in diligent self-assessment.

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