Predicting the Future: Bitcoin’s Potential Surge in 2024
The patterns in the price movements of Bitcoin in 2024 have garnered the attention of industry experts, as historical data indicates similarities with previous halving years, particularly in 2016 and 2020. Julio Moreno, the Head of Research at CryptoQuant, has highlighted these insights, which are based on the “Cumulative Return Index on Halving Years,” a metric that closely monitors Bitcoin’s price action during halving years.
The data shows that Bitcoin’s price movements at the beginning of 2024 closely resemble those seen in 2012, 2016, and 2020. However, a significant deviation was observed this year, as Bitcoin experienced a rapid surge in price towards the end of the first quarter. This upward trend began as early as September 2023 and continued for seven consecutive months, culminating in a new all-time high above $73,000 in March 2024, a month before the scheduled halving.
The unexpected timing of this all-time high, prior to the halving, was attributed to the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which injected substantial capital into the market. As a result, the ETF products have received over $17 billion in net inflows within seven months. Despite reaching the all-time high, Bitcoin faced a 15% correction in April, marking its first monthly loss since September 2023. However, the Cumulative Return Index metric indicates that this correction brought Bitcoin back in line with levels observed in past cycles.
Despite initial concerns surrounding the dip in price, the data suggests that Bitcoin’s current position aligns with historical patterns seen in previous halvings. This indicates that Bitcoin is on track, with the only outlier being the surge in 2012. In both 2016 and 2020, Bitcoin largely consolidated from March to August, similar to the current bearish phase. Interestingly, data also suggests a potential recovery in the fourth quarter of this year, mirroring the patterns observed in 2016 and 2020.
While the future remains uncertain, industry experts like Peter Brandt predict a potential spike in Bitcoin’s price, further emphasizing the possibility of a rebound from the ongoing bearish phase. However, it’s important to note that the information presented is purely for informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. Readers are encouraged to conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions, as The Crypto Basic does not take responsibility for any financial losses.
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